Friday, March 21, 2008

Stats Entertainment!

Truth be told, I don't have the kind of mind that's really well-suited for the kinds of stats that a lot of baseball people get really geeked on, nor, as a general rule, am I a fan of posts about stats (or using "geeked" as a verb). Yet here we are. . . about to talk some stats.

The reason for this was because I recently came across a blog post from a site called Baseball Notes, or, if you prefer to believe the URL, somebaseballnotes.com... Either way, a seriously fucking plainly-named blog. They've turned me on to a little tool on Baseball-Reference.com-- which may be yesterday's news to the stat-head set, but since I have a life, is completely new to me-- that will break down all kinds of data about how any given team performed at each spot in the batting order. Upon closer inspection, this is actually kind of cool.

The nut of the post on Baseball Notes was that they've gone through this data team by team for 2007, and picked out which team had the highest OPS at each spot in the batting order. And for some fucking reason, your Toronto Blue Jays ranked first at the fifth spot in the lineup with a .939 OPS. Indeed, despite his shitty start, Frank Thomas turned in a pretty outstanding year by almost any other player's standards, and led the Jays to the top of this category. But a funny thing happened on the way to the painfully obscure stat. . .

It actually turns out that in the 56 games where Thomas batted fifth (and posted an OPS of .935) , the Jays' record was 27-29. However, for some reason that I figure needs exploring, Aaron Hill batted fifth for 34 games, posted an OPS of .946, and the team went 21-13.

Uh... can somebody get Gibbers on the phone?

How about another spot in the order? Well, I'm glad you asked. . .

The Jays, unsurprisingly, were much better when Alex Rios hit third than when Vernon Wells did. Yes, yes, Wells was hurt, but even his shitty .706 OPS for the whole season was better than the .652 he put up hitting third. Rios wasn't at his best in this slot either, but his .811 was a whole lot better than what Vernon did, and the team's record was 40-32 with him there, as compared to 26-36 for Wells.

Actually, none of the Jays thrived when hitting third last year, though anybody else's sample size is too small to really draw conclusions from it. But still, perchaps Scott Rolen makes sense there (though, for the record, Wells' OPS was .904 in the third spot in '06, and the team was 80-70 when he hit there).

Isn't this fun? Let's try another!

The sample size is small, but Rios really kicked fucking ass when he hit second last year (1.043 OPS, 10-8), though the team performed better with lesser (and lefter-- meuh!) hitters were there. Overbay and his .721 OPS out of that spot sucked some bag, but the team went 33-21 when he hit there. Sort of the same idea with Stairs (.898, 17-13).

OK... I'm sure you all can fuck around with this stuff as well as I can, so I'm not going to throw another thousand or so words at you here, but I'll give you at least a couple more things to chew on:

- Only a 77 PA sample size, but Gregg Zaun's OPS was 130 points higher than normal when he hit sixth (.882 compared to .752 on the season).
- The Jays' fifth, sixth and seventh hitters went .940, .844, and .886 in terms of OPS with runners in scoring position. No other slots topped .770.
- Do yourself a favour and avoid looking at the splits against right handed pitching.(That's going to kill this team again, isn't it?)

Crazy stuff, huh?

(OK, ... I'm really sorry for the stat bullshit everyone, but it was either this, or ape Blair's gem about a possible clubhouse monkey (get it?), or turning a throwaway quote from Joe Maddon to Tom Verducci into a thousand-word screed on why every lazy amateur "expert" writing off the Jays and getting all fucking pumped about those exciting, less-shitty-than-usual Rays seriously needs to go fuck himself. Maddon said that the Jays "probably have the best pitching staff in the division," FYI.)

9 rational and reasonable comments:

Andrew said...

I saw that this afternoon and the 5th spot sticks out like a child prodigy.

Perhaps they sprayed the 5th spot for injury bug.

yer mama said...

Welp...this is the first extremely drunk post that I've put up on here and I'm upset that it took this long but at the same time proud. As I like to say FUCK IT BUD...

On a side note I've been rolling it pretty well lately. Seven straight games over 200 including 4 of those in the sport shot league on Sunday (I wasn't drinking)and 3 last night (I got progressively drunker all night). I think the problem with me rolling like a cunt was my push away and I think I've got that fixed now.

Stoeten said...

Is this asshole talking about bowling?

Callum said...

You boys are probably all over this already, but if you want to see Zaun eat breakfast and Aaron Hill play Layla again, The Season: '08 Jays kicks off March 30th.

Adam said...

I love the season '08 Jays. Especially when they drop that straight gangster music for the intro.

I think it was the same music sportsnet used when Zaun and Jason Portuondo covered the playoffs last year. Straight fucking GANGSTER!

Word!

walter.sobchak said...

stoeten

Yeah, the creep can roll but i heard he's a pederast. He had to go door to door when he moved to the neighborhood.

Anonymous said...

Most columnists are falling over themselves to praise Tampa because they have been so terrible for a decade. They also want to do the trendy stories. If the Jays would have secured a few more wins toward 90, they would probably be taken more seriously. Nobody cares until the Jays actually show that they can compete.

Stoeten said...

I don't even think it's just the columnists, though. The smart ones, at least, seem to have their heads on straight about how, while it's nice that the Tampa Bays look better on paper this year, they're still like... I don't know... the Atlanta Hawks? Some team with a young core where you start thinking, shit, if they could put all that talent together they'd really have something. It's a nice thought, but for fuck sakes they lost 96 games last year and are not a whole hell of a lot different now. Like... FUCK OFF. I understand the need to come up with something fresh to write about, but no, seriously... FUCK OFF.

(Not you anonymous, the writers like Dayn Perry who actually lend credence to the completely bullshit notion that the Rays have a chance to finish higher than fourth. FUCK OFF.)

Stoeten said...

Walter, this is not Nam, there are rules.

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