Foggy Countin' Breakdown
When I saw that Parkes brought up Griff's latest mail bag in his previous post, I figured it wouldn't really be worth my time to do a little hatchet job of my own on our favourite honourary, card-carrying former member of SABR, so I scrapped what I had been working on. Fortunately for you all, there were a few things that kept gnawing at me, and I can't resist the temptation any longer. . .
"When David Eckstein dropped the perfect double-play feed from Scott Downs, it cost the Jays the win. Let's see, one loss over 25 games because McDonald was not out there with the lead. That works out to six losses over 162 games."
This. Is. Insane.
Not withstanding the fact that it was a total fluke play that Eckstein normally makes in his sleep, is Griff seriously going to discount anything to do with hitting in his little hair-brained equation? I mean, I know it's not like this sentence is the culmination of six months of intensive study, and I'm as big a fan of Johnny Mac as anybody-- his consistently amazingness was literally the only thing that made 2007 bearable-- but the Jays' problem is that they can't hit! Even if it were OK to use this one bullshit play as your main example in a warped equation (though... why not, say, all the balls Eckstein misses that Mac gets to?), what a-bout the fuck-ing bats?
If the difference is only one run every six games (I'd figure it's more, but then again, I'd also use sensible examples), Eckstein's bat easily generates that much more than Mac, and then some (stat guys, don't look that up and tell me it's something like 0.87. I'm having a little Griff moment here, OK? Irony!)
"It's unbelievable that among major Toronto sports franchises, Ricciardi has the longest tenure among GMs and Gibbons has the longest tenure among managers or head coaches and it's also the only local sports franchise that has not been to the post-season this century. Yeah, yeah, I know. It’s harder to make the baseball playoffs. But the Marlins have won two World Series in the past 12 years."
Um... it's not just "harder" to make the baseball playoffs, it's twice as hard. That's pretty goddamn hard. Sixteen of thirty NHL teams go to the dance, only eight of thirty in baseball. And the Leafs haven't done that for three years. And they're full of bloated, shitty contracts. And they have no future. And fuck them.
Plus, at least half of JP's tenure has been spent either in rebuilding mode or being decimated by injuries. I know, I know, excuses, excuses. But those are also reasons why him and Gibbers still being around is hardly shocking. And before last year, the Raptors hadn't been to the playoffs in four years.
So... um... is this really the best way to shit on the Jays? Oh wait, maybe if you could just work in something about the Marlins!
"As for the five best moves by the GM…hmm: there's signing Frank Catalanotto as a free agent; obtaining Hinske from the A's for Billy Koch; obtaining Lilly from the A's for Bobby Kielty; obtaining Cory Lidle from the A's for Mike Rouse and Chris Mowday; obtaining Marco Scutaro from the A's for Graham Godfrey and Kristian Bell; obtaining Frank Menechino from the A's for future considerations; obtaining John McDonald from the Tigers for himself; avoiding the white sauces and breakfast meats at Stuckey’s."
Wow. (PS. Jeremy Accardo)
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88 comments:
I can't even get through anything the piece of shit writes anymore because it's so asinine.
Matt Stairs was a pretty decent signing, too. Seriously, listing Menechino, Scutaro, and Lidle ahead of him? Even Cat and McDonald, for that matter. And Hinske! Jesus.
if the Marlins are in the AL East how many times to they make the post season in the past 12 years...
Griff is such a douchebag.
"That works out to six losses over 162 games."
Did they throw him out of SABR for that one? I would have.
I'm sensing some GM envy... does Bryan Colangelo know anything about baseball?
Fuck mother fuck.
I kinda laugh though cause someone was asking last night why Halladay would accept walking DO after he had lost him in the count.
Although, I am crying inside.
Speaking of douchbags, when are we going to hear about Gary Dumbo and his complete incompetence as a hitting coach?
Whoops, an Ortiz homer...1-0, game over.
Like I so eloquently put it yesterday.....BREAK UP THIS TEAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's all Vernon's fault.
ugh - something has to give as some point...
and Manny Delcarmen is in the game - come on Lind you bastard
Did anyone else notice that Wilner is now jumping on the DJF bandwagon of calling Rolen the Best Blue Jay Ever (or as I call it BBJE)?
So i guess it is not just the DJF's channeling Wilner in their drunk bloggage, it also runs the other way with Wilner channeling the DJF in his post game bloggage.
Does anyone else get annoyed by people over the age of 12 who wear autographed jerseys?
Does anyone else get annoyed by people over the age of 12 who wear autographed jerseys?
yea jrock, I noticed that from Wilner too. Stoeten though, has totally been Wilnering it up recently.
By the way, nice cold double play coming right up!
I do jrock, fuck those 'tards, that stuff should be hanging safely...unless it's somethign that deserves to be shat on...Shitsky jersey anyone?
come on rios you bastard...!
The worst is that Jeff Blair has been channeling Griff recently.
Must be the expos connection.
Wow...that's a spicy caesar I just made!
Nice cold triple play COMING RIGHT UP!!
whoot rbi!!
Fucking lady luck!!!!!
you have damned our Jays to keep their sub-.250 BABIP for eternity!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tag up Scuatro you stupid fuck!
someone needs to tell the TabiCat to shut up.
Not the BBJE's fault. brutal 2nd strike call.
New ranking
Steib
Alomar
Rolen
Why the fuck does Sportsnet always show them singing 'Sweet Caroline'? Do they not realize that 90% of their audience is Jays fans and that we don't give a flying fuck?
I wish Eckstein screwed up that play on the first game of the season, then Griff's math would have been awesome. 162 game losing errors on tap for Eckstein.
Nice fucking game by McGowan! At least our starting pitching has been awesome this series
I wish there was no Win stat for pitchers. I wouldn't feel so bad for Doc and Dusty that way.
I'm gonna hwhwack off for something to do
Did anyone notice when super-loser Jamie Campbell accidentily went on air doing a horrendous rendition of sweet caroline last night?
Bullshit!!!!
that pinch running move paid off.. wait wait wait wait wait NOT!
SHOOT JOHN MCDONALD! He is useless... how can we afford to keep leads we don't have?
did they really need to bring in cosentino's "expert" analysis on that one?>
Does Cosentino need to be brought in, period?
The most classic cosentino line was when he claimed to be a personal friend of Ozzie Guillen.
goog 'ol snakeface
The Macdonald pick off didn't matter, it would of been a double play with wells up.
If the Jays lose, you can blame the top of the 8th. 2nd and 3rd no outs, it takes some special ability to only manage to score 1 run
anon, it has nothing to do with ability in the 8th.
That was a very low percentage catch. how many times out of 10 does the Bos RF make that catch? If he doesn't make it, we score 2.
Big k snakeface!
Yeah, we can blame the 8th. Or we can blame any of the other 8 innings in which they scored zero runs.
jeezus fuck wells way to redeem!
Now that is a Gold Glove!
WELLS!
PLAYOFFS! (stealing schtick now)
That's for all you artards yesterday who said Ortiz would've made it home regardless.
Fucking "C".
so pretenious. if Varitek was from TO, he would've been the one hick who attended UCC.
ahhh.. regardless, I dont feel so shitty about this Loss
fuck, fuck , fuck!
FUCK THAT, FUCK THAT ARGH,
Thanks a lot Captain Useless (Downs)
I know about 20/20 hindsight and all that, but the Beej or someone likely should have at least been up in case Downs was shitting the bed.
classic game though. last night too.
too bad the bosox came out the better.\
Law&Order sans Jesse l. Martin better be this good.
*Looking for a sharp object*
Meh. This team is mediocre and they just don't have that sense of urgency, or heart, or grit, clutch, or heartgency, or grutch.
NO FUCKING GRUTCH THESE FUCKS! NO GRUTCH AT ALL! SEASON OVER! SEASON OVER! SEASON OVER! THEY HAVE NO GRUTCH! FUCK EVERYTHING! SHOOT YOURSELF IN THE FACE! GRUUUUUUUTCH!!!!!
fuck it, on consecutive nights they jays lose 1-0 and 2-1 to a very very good team. I am looking at the silver lining.
If our pitching keeps up like this we will go on more 7-1 runs than we do 1-7 runs (like this one).
Anyone else wish the pitching was awful, so that we wouldn't get our hopes up that they have any shot at winning any game right now?
Watch, tomorrow Burnett will get rocked and they'll lose 10-9.
Hey Grutch, stop stealing my beers you fuck.
I'm going to do you all a favor and (besides this) take the night off of commenting.
(a) I'm sure you're all sick of my artarded bullshit.
(b) I'm in a pretty fucking dark place right now, and don't want to get all "the season is over before May 1"-ish on this blog.
peace out dudes.
I am going to drown my sorow in a few more caesars.
Good on you to find the silver lining blake. I'm usually what the cynics call an "apologist" but this is pissing me right off. I just received my tickets to see the Jays in Seattle later in the season, and all I can think is "these fuckers are going to ruin my holiday."
And as for Griff, those top 5 moves are hilarious. Menechino! Lidle! Hahahaha gimme a break. Accardo, Stairs as mentioned above. What about Overbay? As Bergkamp helpfully pointed out, Dave Bush (the theoretical centrepiece of that deal for the Brewers) is back in AAA. What about Rolen for Hudson (via Glaus)? In spite of the whole Tommy John thing, signing the Beej wasn't so bad either.
Listen to JP slag on Bonds. He sounds like he hates him as a person. Like Barry pissed in his cornflakes or something.
dt, I saw the Jays in Seattle on Canada day last year. My favourite team vs. my 2nd favourite (the Mariners, if you can have a 2nd fav).
It was an awesome atmosphere, probably about equal numbers of Cdns and Yanks. Awesome stadium. Awesome Seattle fans. I have never met such genuinely nice fans. The Jays have their nice fans, but the average Joe who attend Jays games at skydome is a total douche.
Yep it's always a good time down there for the Jays games, Safeco is great. I kinda miss the old Kingdome days when no one in Seattle cared about the M's and BC was all ga-ga for the Jays. It was 90% Jays fans; I kinda felt bad for the M's.
That's how I became a Jays fan.
One of the few perks of now living in Onterrible is that I get to go to Jays games.
Love the Canucks, HATE the Leafs, but live and die with the Jays. It's the westcoast motto.
JP....if you take all this responsibility...then step down. step down plz!!!!1
btw I missed the Bonds talk (on WWJP), can I hear this on their site after?
So sounds like a resounding No on Bonds. "I'd rather have my integrity...I'm not afraid to lose my job...and if we're not good enough we're not good enough..."
blah blah blah. Does anyone on here actually like JP? Or are there absolutely no fans?
Hearing JP spin on 590 is becoming unbearable.JP the team is sinking,the pitching is fantastic BUT the offense sucks!He doesn't thisnk Barroid is a character guy?He can get fannies in the seats and win some games for the Jays.Jp has no clue...another 1 run loss?ON the YES broadcast tonight,they were mocking the fact that Halladay pitched 3 complete game losses!It seemed so amusing to them because the Yankee pitching sucks terribly right now!The Yankees suck too,but not like this!The Jays are becoming a laughing stock and JP wants to feed the fans BS with integrity.Is feeding the fans and the press lies for the last few years BS?
I really hate it when people blame GMs and coaches for teams sucking at their JOBS. JP has built a good team and has made very few glaring mistakes. Passing on Tulowitzki and drafting Russ Adams as a SS are really the only ones I can think of. All the other mistakes are debatable. And honestly, do you even wanna be sports fan if management is more important than the players? Cuz I don't. If the smartest management decides who wins and loses, why don't we just have a chess tournament and that'll decide it.
Clearly, the Jays are not becoming a laughing stock. If people are laughing at the Jays, then they're retarded. Do you realize how ridiculously hard it is to outscore your opposition and play .392 baseball? To be 2-8 in one run games? Granted, they aren't slugging worth a shit, but with this staff that shouldn't really be killing them this badly. This is horrendous luck. Partially brought upon themselves by not hitting, but still it's horrendous luck.
I have no problems with JP as a baseball executive, which is the only facet of him that really matters to me.
sp you couldn't be more wrong.
the team is losing because of the talent on the roster, and its lack there of. Talent factors in to about 90% of winning, in terms of factors you can control. I don't blame the manager, but the GM is who is responsible for roster construction, and it's not just about mistakes, thats only a small part of it. JP is an NL/.500 GM. It's so stupid cause I have the answer right here: start going over slot in the draft, keep spending 100 million on ML talent (which is JP's strong suit), and in 5 years you have a World Series appearnce. See: Tigers, Detroit.
Either way, the players play the game, but the players are there because of the GM, and they can only do what's within their range.
Also, proof the baseball gods hate the Blue Jays:
Eric Hinske, hitting .292, with 6 homers, and 14 walks, which is probably around a 1000 OPS.
OK eli, so you want JP to go over the slot which ownership specifically said they won't do??!! Brilliant. I like how you're under the impression that JP hasn't though of that or that he wouldn't go over the slot in a second if he could.
And can you seriously, with an objective eye, look at our roster and say that it's "not talented"? Just look at it. We have the best pitching staff in the majors. One of the better bullpens. We have a more than talented enough lineup. That should equal a playoff if the PLAYERS perform. The players! If this team is in the NL, we're in the playoffs and probably in the NLCS against the D'Backs.
Players go through slumps and booms, just like the economy (but with baseball, hitting is much more variable).
The Jays are having the worst luck with RISP, their BABIP in these situations (a stat where luck is a mjor variable in the function) is wya below average (even for this lineup). the talent is there.
Wow, so the Jays just have to do what the Tigers did. That sounds super easy!!!
Fact is it is as simple as the Tigers make it. They'll win 90+ wins this year, indirectly because they were willing to take Porcello 26th overall for 7 million, over those 25 stupider teams in front. Doing that with Miller and Maybin, whether they turn out or not, got them cabrera and willis. It's penny wise pound foolish to not spend the extra 3 million on a porcello, and then waste it in countless ways on the ML roster.
Also, sp, talent is a relative thing. The hitting looks okay, but have you ever compared it to any other lineups? The lineup just doesn't cut it, no matter how good it seems to you on paper.
Also, let's say the Jays went to the NL instead of Milwuake years ago. They may have had 1 or 2 playoff appearences here or there, just like the Raptors in the Eastern Conference in the NBA, but they'd nary make a noise. This was never a world championship calibre team under JP
Eli, that's ridiculous. The Jays would be one of the top three teams in the NL.
SP, I agree 100%, despite whatever drunken ridiculousness I may have posted about the manager.
Plus, if the Jays ever did make the playoffs, with these starters they'd have a really, really good chance of winning the WS. Assuming of course that since they've already hypothetically made the playoffs the bats are batting.
The Jays aren't making the playoffs. I'd be surprised if they win 80 games.
But as Wilner says....
Andrew Stoeten, clinging to his hair and a semblence of youth before he becomes a fat loser.
Really, a combover in your twenties!
Eli dude, come on brother.
I'm about to piss off the majority here, so buckle up kids. Ready? Fuck the JP Ricciardi haters right now. Straight fuck 'em.
Everyone thought going into the season that the team (JP assembled) had the talent to contend. Everyone universally applauded the Rios and Hill contracts. Most applauded the Wells contract - at the time. A few offseasons ago, he had payroll dollars to spend, so he signed the best SP on the market (AJ) and solidified the pen with BJ. What did you want him to do with the money - invest in a fucking GIC? Most draft experts think the last few drafts have been above average. He's made some good tradess (Accardo, Overbay). He's brought the team some mainstream pub - not important, but kinda cool, I guess. We all have boners for Rolen, even if he did indirectly cost us the O-Dog.
So to sit here and say he's pure horseshit as a GM is ridiculous to me. Yes, let's just do waht the Tigers did. But shhh! Don't tell Baltimore. Don't tell Seattle. Don't tell Texas. We gotta keep that to ourselves, or EVERYONE will do it.
I think the most frustrating thing about this team is that (besides "sign Barry") there just doesn't seem to be an obvious fix. Frank didn't work out and Shannon over Reed doesn't look great at the moment, but neither of those things has hamstrung the team.
There isn't even a position on the team where they're desperately in need of an upgrade. C and SS are probably the weakest spots, but look around baseball and catchers are hard to come by, and whatever you think of his contributions, Eckstein at the very least hasn't prevented his championship teams of the past from winning.
I guess what you get with Barry is that one feared hitter in your lineup, and as much as I love Vernon and Alex, neither of them is like that and probably never will be. Other teams and their fans don't quake in their boots when any Jay steps to the plate the way we do when Papi or Manny or A-Rod step up. Maybe I just answered my own question.
For god's sake JP, sign Barry. That moralistic crap tonight was too much for me, although I did enjoy the insinuation that they wouldn't have signed Zaun if they'd known about the HGH. I'm sure that'll make Zauny feel really great.
Amen, ack.
Anonymous, what does it make you, exactly, that you're here shitting on me and my hair (or what's left of it)? Besides pathetic, that is.
I mean, are you hoping to work your way up to being a troll on other, more hirsute, peoples' websites? I don't get it. Good luck with that, though, I guess. I'm sure you can show off your ability to be a brainless fucking twat on better sites than this.
This is not largely the fault of Ricciardi or, probably, Gibbons.
The team is performing so far below what they should offensively that it is almost ludicrous.
While I believe we lack steel, I don't think there is a lot that can be done except to wait it out and hope to hell that when the offense finally does come to life our pitching will let us put a great run together.
I just wish I had even a small amount of faith that they can do it.
Yeah, that pretty much nails it Pat.
The ack, I'd say your full of blind optismism horseshit. I'd say fuck the JP dick suckers cause you guys are pretty blind right now.
I never said he was horeshit as a GM. He's okay at recognizing and paying ML talent, even though that's the least creative thing about the GM job that anyone can do (he's also wasteful with it, overpaying several players). There's a lot of stupid teams, and I don't know what it stems from, but perhaps because the owners are rich fucks who don't really care if they have the best GM. Baltimore, Seattle and Texas all of shitty GM's (or did). Sure, if every team smartened up, then it'd be an even playing field again. But the fact is, the Jays HAVE to smarten up because they are a mid-payroll team in the AL East. They could get by this shit in the NL (btw Stoten, The Jays may be third best in the NL the last couple of years, but I meant going way back to the early part of this decade, they would never have been the best team or likely a WS winning team). If you haven't noticed, there's pretty good parity in baseball. 7 different teams have won a world series in the last 8 years. It's always mixed up in the NL, and mostly in the AL (except the AL East).
"Everyone thought going into the season that the team (JP assembled) had the talent to contend."
Except for every media publication, and many many fans.
"Everyone universally applauded the Rios and Hill contracts."
Okay.
"Most applauded the Wells contract - at the time."
No, I recalled more saying it was an overpayment, for not even a free agent.
"A few offseasons ago, he had payroll dollars to spend,..."
Any GM can throw money around. Big fucking whoop.
etc. etc. (And a note on the Overbay trade, I'd like to wait for him to slug over 350 for a 1b before we call that trade a win).
Anyway, JP is the longest running GM without a playoff spot, and he's totally responsible for the team sucking. You guys that aren't JP haters are fucking blind. Why do you think Keith Law, one of the smartest guys in baseball, thinks JP is an absolue douche.
I'll answer your other things:
re: AJ and BJ. So far the record is mixed on these signings. At the time, these were market setting contracts. In that sense, yes good for him, just a year later they were deemed as under market value, so he read the market right.
"Most draft experts think the last few drafts have been above average."
Yes, last year's was good, as they had a whopping 7 picks in the top 100, or something like that. JP Arencibia was an overdraft, because he'd sign for slot. Cecil and Ahrens were solid picks. But an overall great draft, mixing in talented high schoolers. 2006 brough in Travis Snider, so no complains there, except that they didn't have a 2nd or 3rd rouinder from the AJ and BJ signings. Everything 2005 and before was on the whole bad, but I do note the improvements he's been making there.
"He's made some good tradess (Accardo, Overbay)."
He ripped off Accardo off the handsdown worst GM in the game, Brian Sabean. Guy gave Barry Zito 126 million.
"He's brought the team some mainstream pub"
A direct result from signing big name players. Thomas, Rolen, Glaus, etc etc.
optimistic I am not, my friend. sorry. but thanks for calling me out..... gives me a chance to stretch my legs a little here.
I actually think that's a little humorous of you to suggest though, considering you think it's pretty fucking easy to just pull a Tigers by going over slot and throwing $100M at ML payroll to turn it around - though I don't disagree with your view on the draft.
you're rather full of horseshit yourself when you say every media publication discounted the Jays chances. Wilner, Buster Olney, Rob Neyer, even notorious Jays hater Dayn Perry, off the top of my head, gave the Jays at least a sleeper chance, which is really tantamount to a compliment coming out of the AL East.
The Wells contract was as much a statement as anything else - the Jays were willing to pay to retain and bring in talent. It's only an overpayment based on hindsight, because coming off the season he had, it was a market deal.
Well, yeah, any GM can throw money around.....my point is, when ownership gives you the dollars to spend, you have to spend them. And maybe, just maybe, JP HAD to overpay or include bullshit clauses like the opt-out to get players to come here? That's probably a sad reality.
And again with the hindsight, re: Overbay.....easy to say now coming off a dismal season, but where was the pissing and moaning when he hit .300+ with 45+ doubles? And who did he give up David Bush? Way to outduel Josh Towers yeserday. Gabe Gross? #5 outfielder. Zach Jackson? Big fucking deal.
And you know dude, I'm not a complete JP "dick sucker", he's made deals I totally disagree with...never liked the Frank Thomas contract from the get-go, disagreed with Shannon > Reed (if only because I never thought Stewart would be the offensive force he was made out to be), and think he's a little too infatuated with the A's system (Scutaro, Kielty, et al).
Love Keith Law - smart guy, entertaining, interesting perspective, etc - but the working relationship went sour and they both went sniping in the media, which I think is a little unprofessional from both of them.
So agree to disagree, I guess. I want the team to win and am living and dying a little TOO much by them these days, but my overall point is, the JP bashing is from pure hindsight, and that pisses me off.
That, and it's May 1 right now.
anyone reading this novella? sorry dudes.
Ack, you make some good points, however the team just hasn't lived up to expectations. It didn't in 2006 when he started spending all that cash, and it didn't last season either(granted, with a bunch of injuries). The fact is, the results haven't been there for 7 seasons. And to say that the JP bashing is universally from pure hindsight is untrue. People have been bashing JP since the day he was hired, I'm sure.
The fact is though, when evaluating sports GMs, we sometimes have to look at things in hindsight. We're fans, we're not paid to know things a GM should know. Just because the general consensus among fans was positive at the time of a transaction(like the Hinske signing) doesn't mean it was a good move. This roster has holes. I'd say depth is a big one. Did all the fans notice these holes in the offseason? Nope, but then we don't spend our entire workdays being paid to think about and analyze the roster.
At least I don't, but then that's only because I don't have workdays anymore.
I agree with you on Keith Law as well. he might be a smart guy, but he definitely has a problem with JP personally, and it shows.
Eli, I know your opinion is shared by a lot of people, and I think it's fair to be frustrated, but I think that saying in hindsight that people didn't think this team have the talent to contend is a bit much. Absolutely they do. And that hasn't changed because they're playing about as badly as they possibly could right now. As ANYBODY possibly could. But this isn't a bad team, this is a good team playing really, really badly. And they will play better. Maybe not enough to salvage the season, though personally I believe they can still keep things interesting, but they absolutely will play better or they're going to lose 100 games. If you look at this lineup and this pitching staff, there's no way that happens. I know that's not a sufficent answer for a lot of people who are feeling the effects of all these frustrating years, but on paper, JP's done a pretty good job, it's just not translating on the field, and that's really kind of unexplainable, because these are guys that anyone would look at and say, "They can hit." Not the greatest collection in the history of the game by any means, but it's hardly the way you paint it, and I think that's because you're being clouded by these awful, awful last few weeks. That does not undo the good work JP has done assembling this team. Yet, that's also not to say he doesn't deserve to lose his job if the team continues to fall flat on their faces, but it's just an awful time to be judging right now. To me, when I look at this lineup and this pitching staff, I really have a hard time faulting the GM for thinking it would work. It SHOULD work, and that's what's so frustrating. It WILL work better, but as the losses mount, working better seems more and more like it's not going to be enough. I still have no problem with what he's doing or what he's done. Maybe I'm way wrong though, but I think a lot of the criticisms he takes are petty and not really understanding of the big picture.
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