Proving Once Again That We're Total Hacks...
Fire Joe Morgan has just shat upon our friend Griff way more hilariously-er than we ever could.
(Yes, that's Peter Gammons playing a Les Paul. It has nothing to do with anything, I just didn't want to use the wino pic again so soon, OK?)
(Oh, and I don't know what the fuck an AP Physics exam is either.)
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21 comments:
It might just have something to do with their site looking way better than yours, but, wow. That was indeed an impressive dismantling of another human being.
junior>stoeten>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>parkes
I hope someone sends that to Griff to remind him that JP isn't the only one who can say or worse write something stupid. At least JP was live, Dick had time to carve that piece up before hitting enter and sending it (or perhaps he wrote it on a cocktail napkin).
About the poll, why would most players want to come in and have to play the Yankees and Red Sux 20 times a year (and now the Rays, too). It is not usually a good way to build your value (I guess Lilly was the exception).
-brent in Korea (and the above one)
JAYS 2010 ANSWERS STOETEN ANSWERING GRIFFIN'S MAILBAG
Since Griffin answered one of my questions this week, I figured I would respond to Stoeten's response of my question. I was under the alias of "Yoshi Ahma" and bear in mind that I worded the question in a way that I thought Griffen may include it in his mailbag. Griffin makes some okay points about JP, but for the most part he clearly shits on JP excessively cause he doesn't like him. However, if you don't pet Griffin's pussy by crediting him with "astute criticims of JP", he'll never answer you. Before I do this, I must say that i think this site rules, Stoeten rules, and the first ever response to Griffin's mailbag is the funniest thing I've ever seen on this site. I also have a theory that Griffin now selects his questions so he won't be ripped as much by Stoeten, because since that first mailbag the questions have not been as good. This is what I take issue with Stoeten...
"I'm pretty sure calling JP "a GM that pays for future performance" is, to be perfectly honest, a little bit retarded."
-This is totally wrong. If you listen to JP in the summer he signed AJ and BJ, he specifically signed them because they had quality peripheral stats and were the right age and could grow with the team. The main point: HE DIDNT SIGN GUYS BECAUSE OF WINS like Jason Marquis, who the Cubs gave a dipshit contract to after winning like 14 games with an ERA over 6 BJ Ryan only had one yr of closing when JP signed him, but was clearly a dominant arm. After he made the all-star team nobody said JP was a moron for signing him.
One reason you can see that the Jays never went after Gagne is because he clearly does not look like the pitcher of many years ago - Milwaukee's signing of him was dumb in this regard (though it was a one yr contract, so it was not so bad). My argument is that Washburn and Millwood (who were signed in the same offseason) were guys with lesser stuff who technically could be seen as better based on Washburn winning a world series and Millwood having a few good years. They weren't .500 pitchers - JP doesn't pay for past wins while many other GMS do.
As far as the pitching staff, JP has never spent ridiculous money on an over the hill guy. Look at his pitching targets: Miguel Batista, Gil Meche and Burnett are all guys with stuff who had not yet hit their stride when they were targeted. When I say JP pays for future performance, I don't mean he ignores track records. I mean that he gets guys who look like they can still contribute and will quite possibly pitch their best baseball for him. He CLEARLY goes for upside pitchers. Tim Lincecum for Rios is another example: Lincecum did not have past success while Rios had, and yet JP knows that in terms of future performance TL is a cy young guy.
I heard the podcast the other day and someone was saying that you cannot credit JP for predicting that the pitching market would go insane. Again, this is incorrect. If you listen to his interviews from the offseason he signed Burnett and the season after that, he specifically says "i think u're going to see teams more protective of their young pitchers" and he said this right before it happened. This is why he did not trade Marcum/Jansen/McGowan when they were rumoured in a Brett Myers trade. While JP has not drafted many upside pitchers, he clearly has focussed on pitching in the draft. Look at other teams signing Marquis, Silva, Benson (which raised the market before JP ever did). If you look around the league at the teams that spend a little on free agent pitchers, I'm pretty sure u'd agree that JP cares about what the pitchers will do for them way more than what they have done for other teams, relative to other GMs.
"Umm... Frank Thomas? David Eckstein? Trott Glaulen? These guys were all brought in based on what they did in the past, and except for one year of Glaus and a half of Thomas, they've not come anywhere near earning the dough the Jays are paying them."
-Really this is a Griffen argument. One time someone asked whether or not he gave credit for JP building a quality bullpen and he reeled off a bunch of names that have done shit for TO. You can look at every team that delves into the FA market and they've all wasted as much or more money than JP on poor FA's. The dodgers, yankees, red sox, phillies, mets etc have all wasted far more money than JP on over-the-hill talent. Seriously, Frank Thomas is a waste of a mere 8 mill -you've got your head up your ass if u think the market for 100 rbi DH's is less than the 10 mill JP spend on Thomas last yr. Thomas was coming off a huge yr and obviously JP thought he could do the same for him. It's not like Thomas came off a shit yr (like Andrew Jones) and JP thought he'd have a big yr...
As for Glaus, nobody will disagree that JP takes injury risks. But he was clearly not over-the-hill when JP acquired him (he made the all-star team for a reason). Yes, he's an injury risk, but to say he was a limp bat paid for past performance is erroneous. He's not Andrew Jones.
Now I agree that I get a hardon watching Johnny Mac play defence. But I do not understand how you can find reasons to defend JP's signing of Stewart over Johnson and can't seem to find any reasons for him signing Eckstein and using him over JMac. Yes he was coming off a poor defensive yr, but he was always considered a decent defender. This technically may be paying for past performance, but one bad yr happens to many players. Tim Dierkes of MLBTR said that "nobody can complain" about the Eckstein signing when it happened. Nitpicking every single move in retrospect is dumb and even if he wasted 4.5 mill on Eck, is that worse than Julio Lugo in Boston? Eck clearly had the potential to help the team more than JMac (and not because hes a gritty white guy who has won 2 world series). He is a good OBP guy with leadoff skills, just what we needed out of SS. Calling this signing illogical and the Stewart signing logical is dumb. Honestly, it makes zero sense to defend the stewart move and not find any reasons to defend the eckstein move.
" your point about AJ being a better risk than those other guys, um... sure, it seems like that now. But it could have worked out any number of ways"
-this is retarded; im not saying which move worked out better, im saying which is smarter at the time. AJ was coming off a 200 inning season which obviously lessened the injury risk factor. I have already conceded that JP takes injury risks, but he wanted him because he had more upside than those other two mid-rotation guys. Analyze the 15-25 teams that spend some money in the league and i guarantee u'll see that JP pays more for potential than washed up ML players relative to other GM's.
"the way the AJ contract built in a whole fuckload of additional risk for the Jays"
-if he didnt give the opt-out clause, he wasnt signing in TO. Simple as that. If you want to say that JP had to sign AJ because of his draft ineptitude, go right ahead. But if you can't see JP's patterns then don't shit on him by speculating the way that Griffin does.
-The 20 win stuff was, again, petting Griff's pussy. No shit the 20 win thing is stupid - but if you don't appease RG he won't answer the questions and you'll have nothing to write about on Wednesday and I won't have your column to read.
Excluding the griffbait, the entire point of the question is that JP doesn't waste money as much as most other GM's on past performance - he doesn't use dumbass stats like wins to determine pitcher value. Yes he's wasted money, but compare him to other GMs in his budget group and its easy to see that he does care more about future performance than other GM's. If Thomas is considered his "worst" signing in terms of past performance, is that worse than Marquis, Benson, Lugo etc? Simply look at the pitchers that JP targets and see if you can build a solid argument with examples that JP cares about stupid stats and past performance more than most other GMs (and I'm mostly talking about pitching, but go right ahead and discuss the hitting as well).
Wow. Ownage.
yoshi>junior>stoeten>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>parkes
Why does Spencer hate Parkes so much?
Jays2010 just went yard!!!!!
(imagining Ginger Campbell losing his brain).
Regardless, FJM fucking schooled Dick Griffin.
i miss reed johnson. i think the 'this century's darcy tucker' stuff is a low-blow, considering reeder was a million dollar player, could platoon, and had an elite-level skill (defense). the fact that he just happens to be having a career year in chicargo just makes it hurt that much more.
Actually it's pretty impressive that JP recognizes what a sunk cost is and how to deal with it. Too many GMs don't do this and end up continuing to pay players to fuck up the team (Andrew Jones, Juan Pierre)
considering reeder was a million dollar player,
you're not very good at numbers
hth
best regards
johN
don't be a dick, john-wannabe. he signed with the cubbies for 1.3 this year. if the jays had renewed him for 3m or whatever he made last year, that's not much of a stretch either, considering they paid lil' x 4.5, stew 1.5m, and thomas 10m.
reeder is a 1m-3m dollar player. better?
Thank you Jays2010 you nailed it. And thank you Drunks...your poorly researched and thought-out posts make me appreciate JP more and more every day. I used to hate JP but the more I read this blog and listen to the podcasts the more you guys sound just as dumb as those Jays Talk and Griffin retards. if all you can come up with to shit on JP is the Thomas signing, ECKSTEIN (???), Glaus (???), and AJ/BJ (???), then JP must be one of the best GMs in baseball because all of those except Thomas were great moves. Like Jays2010 said, if you look at other GM's personnel records, you'll see most have made much more and much worse moves.
The whole point of shitting on Griffin is for you to correct him, not to sound just as dumb. Seriously guys, do some research if you want to be taken seriously.
My rankings of the Jays blogs as far as quality of writing and discussion.
1.
Southpaw
Batters Box
Wilner
Tao of Stieb
2.
Ghostrunner on First
The Mockingbird
Major League Bastian
and way below everyone else...
Drunk Jays Fans
AP Physics Exam is an exam you can take to get college credit for Physics while still in high school - its an American thing.
Hey Spencer chill the fuck out and try to understand what's being written. These pricks are constantly defending Ricciardi. In a previous post Parkes said that a case could be made that the BJ/AJ signings were bad. It was to illicit conversation, not make a definite statement. When did anyone say anything bad about the Glaus/Rolen deal? But thanks for ranking the blogs. I'm sure that DJF will really take that to heart.
Re: Power rankings. Thanks for reading, anon. Or at least trying to.
that comment drops you a rank.
yoshi>junior>bergkamp>stoeten>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>parkes
Yoshi. I think we're closer to agreeing on a lot of stuff than you think. As for the answer I gave to your question, you're right that there are many examples of JP not paying for wins. However, being literate, I took your blanket statement to mean that you were saying that he always does that.
You nicely refuted that by bringing up all those pitching examples, but then when answering the charges I brought-- Thomas, Eckstein, Glaus, Rolen-- these all somehow became exceptions. I don't disagree with a lot of what you've said about those guys-- I still defend the intention of signing Eckstein and don't think his defence lost the Jays any games more than any other average SS-- it's just that I don't see how it works to explain them all away like that when you're trying to defend a blanket statement that you made.
On the AJ stuff, in my response I'm implying that you're using hindsight and his upside at the time to say that the move was the best risk. That's different than who has the most upside. I don't know how exactly to quantify risk here, but I do know that I can't be as sure as you in saying that he was a better risk than those other guys. More upside, yes, better risk? Sure looks like it now-- which is exactly what I said-- but I don't think you've shown anyone why we should accept that assumption.
On the contract structure, I'm not disagreeing that they needed to do it to sign him, or disputing the importance of making the signing, I was just trying to help quantify the risk here in a somewhat meaningful way-- because, as I've said, that's something you didn't do at all. Your central question kind of completely indicates that: "Don't you think [AJ having pitched well and healthy enough for it to be beneficial to him to opt out] proves that the AJ signing was a good risk to take?"
Um... of course it doesn't-- if I dashed across the 401 without dying, does that prove it was a good risk to take?-- which is why I was picking at your argument the way I was. I just don't agree-- necessarily-- that Burnett was so clearly less of a risk at the time.
OK, and the Griff bait, fine. Explain that all away too.
Oh and Anon with the power rankings: research my motherfucking ass you dumb cunt. ;)
Stoeten...I'm at work so I'll respond later - like I said, this site rules, your mailbag rules and you're my favourite blogger - that guy making power rankings is a dipshit - tons of stuff is better here than on other sites
Alright Stoeten...I'll try not to be too redundant but i may have to be to hammer home some points...First off, whatya think of my theory about Griffin picking questions so you won't rip him on every single question?
Anywho... I agree with you, we probably have many similar opinions, but you answered the question as poorly as Griffin did (hate to say it). You seem to concede that my pitching examples were correct (and when I spoke of "future performance" I was referring to pitchers and only gave examples of pitchers; I never gave any hitter examples and i thought this implied that my "future performance" argument referred primarily to pitchers with upside). Let me first address Burnett and his comparable pitchers from that offseason (using numbers just like u want) to show why JP paid more for future performance by getting Burnett over washuburn/millwood.
Millwood was 31 yrs old with a 107-75 record when he was signed by texas; Washuburn was 31 yrs old with a 75-57 record when he signed with Seattle, and he obviously got paid for leading the Angels to a world series in his career 18-6 yr of 2002 (just like zito got paid for winning a cy young, though the giants seemed to gloss over the fact that he was coming off a yr with a 1.40 WHIP and had been decling for years); hence seattle obviously paid for past performance - both guys obviously got paid for having good career winning % - as dumb as RG is, GM's think that way (hence russ ortiz got a huge contract from the dbacks after his big-win season with a shitty WHIP). AJ was basically 28 yrs old with a 59-60 record when he signed with us - clearly JP wanted what should be his best pitching years -these stats all came into play when JP made AJ his number one pitching target - so saying i'm using "hindsight" to call AJ the best guy to sign based on potential future performance from the 3 pitchers is dumb.
I also mentioned other targets such as Batista and Meche (u can add lilly/escobar in there) and these guys were also upside guys. On a similar note, id be shocked if u see derek lowe (who bloggers from this site seem to keep pining after) in a BJ uniform next yr cause he doesnt fit the profile of the pitcher JP typically goes after and this is to JP's credit - there would be nothing special about the 2009 version of Lowe pitching in the AL east (check out Lowe's stats in his last 2 yrs pitching for boston; factor out his high win totals from those years and factor in his advanced age in 2009 and u have an average to below average pitcher and we don't need a carlos silva albatross in TO) and this would totally block guys like Cecil/Mills/Romero etc down the road who can easily do what Lowe would and potentially more; when u guys keep saying that u want lowe, ure making the same dumb mistakes that other idiot GMs and griffin make...paying for past performance and wins...
Even though he wouldnt have signed with us, JP (correctly, in hindsight) never targeted a guy like Jason Schmidt because of declining performance/age - Between this post and the last one i think ive provided enough evidence for this argument. One final thing: you don't seem to mention the fact that you are totally wrong about JP predicting the pitching market -we all know JP is defencive in general, espescially when ppl shit on his drafting - he specifically said the yr after signing AJ and BJ that we were "prophetic" for giving those guys those contracts and he made similar statements right after he signed them because he knew the pitching market was going insane; clearly he wants others to think he was smart, but he was smart in this case, just as he was in locking up halladay after signing burnett (a trend which he started and many others have copied)
JP predicted the pitching market and we're reaping the benefits of this - u can either agree with this and admit that u were not well-versed in this area like some commenter accused u of, or u can find some evidence to refute this claim...this is one reason people shit on JP erroneously - they bitch at him for his mistakes and dont give him credit for his foresight, labelling it hindsight/luck incorrectly.
As for the hitters like Thomas, Eckstein, Glaus and Rolen...you never mentioned Rolen in your original answer, but i'll address him anyway; while I'd have been all over JP acquiring Andy Laroche (or someone like that) for Glaus, that isn't one of JP's patterns - that would make him seem like he's selling and he doesn't do that -something u guys have already said many times on your podcasts - i basically count rolen/glaus as one monster so ill focus on glaus...
In terms of guys like Thomas, Eckstein, Glaus and hitters in general, u have to realize that hitters are way different than pitchers; a hitter with a "mediocre" performance before free agency is never gonna get AJ money; if a guy hasnt hit too well in the 6 yrs prior to free agency, nobody is going to give him a long term contract based on "potential". As Jeff Blair and others have said many times, pitching coaches totally believe they can take special arms like AJ's and get the most out of them; have u ever heard of a team signing a hitter in free agency to a long term contract believing that their hitting coach can "mold" them into a middle of the order threat? It doesn't happen, so u can't compare hitters/pitchers this way (for the record, i believe juan rivera is a hitter who has never gotten as much of a chance as he deserves and id totally give him a cheap multi-yr contract and hope to reap the benefits - but thats just a personal gamble id take).
I think I've already explained that JP didnt acquire Glaus, Thomas and Eckstein based on their names; you don't seem to understand what I mean by not paying for past performance; this does not mean that JP avoids guys with track records - that would be dumb (in fact, AJ had a track record of having a solid era/whip/SO stats when he was signed by JP, but he didnt win as much as he should cause the marlins hitters sucked when he pitched)
When JP traded for Glaus, he wasn't washed up at all, he still had power in his bat (and still does) - when he signed Thomas, he was coming off a top 5 al mvp candidate season and had showed he was healthy - obviously its a mistake in hindsight and he obviously was old when we gave him the contract, but he was not paying thomas 18 mill for 2 yrs (with the option) in the same way that the Dodgers are with A Jones, for example - JP wasn't hoping to get the Thomas of the '90s (the Thomas of the 90's would have gotten the Hafner contract...which is burning the Indians way more than FT's contract burned us)- he was hoping to add a bat that was still useful - he also didnt give thomas a 4 yr contract or anything like what Manny wants - and as a commenter correctly said, when JP saw FT was done he cut bait. If we're using your logic of paying for past performance, i guess JP was paying for past performance by giving halladay 2 extensions over 7years (clearly illogical) and the fact that halladay has majorly outperformed his contract, looks good in hindsight, "but it could have worked any number of ways"...pretty dumb.
i dont wanna keep hashing the eckstein thing too much; basically, people need to shut the fuck up about minor signings like eckstein, stewart and mencherson; EVERY fucking team makes these and random bloggers like yourself or myself would not do this better than pro GMs. And the fact that Cito is benching Eck is not relatable to JP paying for past performance; he knew he was getting a guy with .350 OBP skills (which Eck is still doing) and the defence of Rolen/Ecsktein would compare well enough with Glaus/McDonald and even though Rolen has less power than Glaus, he drives in as many guys as Glaus when hes healthy so a Rolen/Eckstein combo is superior offensively (and similar defensively) to a Glaus/Mcdonald combo when healthy - as ive already said, JP was kinda forced with glaus' situation so i put the rolen move in a category by itself.
I don't want to use too many stats, because they can be used to prove anything - in fact, u clearly use stats to pad your argument and ure using them to skew facts...
"Umm... Frank Thomas? David Eckstein? Trott Glaulen? These guys were all brought in based on what they did in the past, and except for one year of Glaus and a half of Thomas, they've not come anywhere near earning the dough the Jays are paying them."
-while frank thomas had a poor start in 2007, he still finished with nearly 100 rbis and a respectable .857 OPS. By claiming thomas had half a yr where he earned his money ure implying that he's worth more money if his stats were more evenly spread out through out the yr - while i would prefer that, this is a dumb argument; if he earned $0 in the first half of the season, think of him as earning $20mill in the second half and hes earning his full 10 mill...
saying thomas earned his money for half a yr and glaus for only one yr is probably the dumbest thing u said - glaus had a .952 OPS through july 16, 2007 (through 68 games - notice that i'm using a date that makes his OPS look more favourable..hence, stats can prove anything) - yes he missed a couple of weeks in april, but thats not significant enough to call his first half of 2007 a "sunk cost" - so lets see, u cancel out Thomas' first half of 2007 even though he finished off with a solid yr overall (he clearly earned his money relative to the fa market for 100 rbi DH's) in order to enhance your argument, and u simultaneously cancel out Glaus' first half of 2007 to also enhance your argument - this is pretty fuckin retarded and its why i shied away from using stats because dumbasses like griffin use the wins stat to enhance their dipshit argument...btw, i hope u see the irony in the fact that when Glaus stopped contributing at an all-star pace in 2007, Thomas took over - the combination of Glaus' first half and Thomas' 2nd half is probably an MVP candidate, and yet, according to u, they only earned a half yr's salary combined...
JP paid for 4 yrs of Thomas and Glaus and got elite production (where these players outperformed their free agent counterparts that earned similar money) for 2 of those 4 yrs, which isnt good, but when its JP's "alleged" biggest mistake (contract-wise) its not bad at all - compare it to other GMs and based on this one stat alone (which is stupid) JP will look like a top GM (based on drafting, though, JP was a bottom 10 GM based on his first 4 drafts, but is a top 10-15 GM based on his last 3 drafts, though these prospects still need to perform at the big league level for a better indication).
Anyway, this excercise is getting boring - i think ure a great blogger cause ure funny and typically have good opinions; but ure mostly wrong here, as much as griffin (though im sure im wrong in some ways as well) - Though i ripped the anonymous commenter who gave DJF a low power ranking, he was accurate in saying that your answer was poorly though-out and i typically respect this site for calling shit on mainstream writers, but in this case i think u and griff are bullshitting on par with each other...
One more addition to the previous post...some dumbass on WWJP the other night was bitching that JP was stupid for giving AJ an opt-out clause; JP (smartly) said something like "well that's cause u want him here, right?", implying that AJ was a good signing BECAUSE he's going to opt-out and get a superior contract. The caller (like an idiot) said something like "no i dont want him here", proving that special needs students can take logic 101 just like everyone else (sorry to slag special needs kids). Point being, as JP said in 2006, "we'd rather have 3 yrs of AJ than nothing".
As I think I've shown, JP correctly predicted the pitching market, so the fact that AJ will opt-out for a better contract does show that it is a good deal (Washburn and Millwood would not be opting-out for better money if they had the option); AJ was a good signing using foresight in 2006 and a good signing using hindsight in 2008, relative to other FA pitchers getting big-time multiyr deals.
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