Stoeten Answers Griffin's Mail Bag

Ugh. Still doing this. Here's this week's stolen mail bag...

Q: Whoa! Did I read that right? Did you mention pitching coach Brad Arnsberg could be leaving the Jays after this season? Is his contract up, because I can't imagine he'd be fired!? Looking at what he has done with this pitching staff over the past few years, especially the young guys when Doc (Halladay) and A.J.(Burnett) were hurt, I can't believe the Jays would let this guy walk. If his contract is expiring, what are the chances he will come back next year? If he goes, who are your top candidates to replace him?

As always, thanks for your insight Richard!

Jon Empringham, Woodstock, Ont.

A: Not a bad fucking question, Jon! But I can really only speculate as to the level of involvement that Arnsberg has had in shaping the pitchers he's worked with. That's the hard thing about evaluating coaches. I can agree with you that on the surface, his record looks pretty impressive, but it's not like he's the only guy working with these pitchers-- or who has worked with them in the past. So... we don't know. You hear great things about bullpen coach Bruce Walton, too. When Sal Fasano was here there was talk about how was like another coach. So, you just can't give all the credit to one guy, even though yeah, in the most superficial way, the record speaks for itself.

You definitely did read that right, though. The writing is on the wall. Arnsberg said that he wasn't consulted before Jesse Litsch was sent down. He wouldn't comment on Marcum's recent demotion-- which helped stir the rumours that it was attitude-related-- and it's been widly reported that it took just one pitch before Syracuse pitching coach Rick Langford pulled Marcum aside to point out flaws in his mechanics. Stuff like that doesn't exactly reflect well on Arnsberg. Throw in the fact that he was a strong Gibbons ally (Griff has noted that Arnsberg was too upset to run his regular meeting on the day that Gibbers was axed), and that his prized pupil AJ-- "This is the guy who's going to get us Burnett," is how Keith Law recalls JP Ricciardi introducing him-- hasn't fulfilled the Jays' most optimistic expecations and won't be back next year, and things do seem to be setting up for Arnsberg to depart. Galen Cisco anyone?


Q: Mr. Griffin,

In your estimation, what are the chances the Jays would endeavour to acquire Carlos Delgado in the off-season? He's a fan favourite in Toronto, still has lots of pop in his bat, could play a combination of first/DH, and serve as a mentor to young Alex Rios.

John Oatway, Orleans

A: How likely is it that the Jays will endeavour to acquire Delgado? What stock do I place in their aspiring to reach the lofty peaks of successful contractual negotiation with one Carlos J. Delgado? Good question.

I would endeavour to say that the scary thing about Delgado is that even though, yes, it looks now like he "still has lots of pop in his bat," he really pulled a Frank Thomas this year. On July 1, three months into the season, Carlos was hitting .228/.307/.419/.726 and people wondered if he was finished. For reference, Rod Barajas this year is a quite similar .256/.303/.429/.732. Of course, since July 1, Delgado has hit an impressive .305/.398/.610/1.008.

But next year he'll turn 37, and I suspect the asking price will be a lot higher than you think. So haven't we kind of been down this road before? I think Delgado is great and I'd love to see him return to Toronto to finish his career, but not so much if there are cheaper or younger alternatives.


Q: Hey Richard, just have a quick question for you.

The Jays are leading the league in team ERA this year thanks to the likes of the bullpen. Is there a chance the bullpen can repeat its success next year or as crazy as it sounds be even better with B.J. (Ryan) getting stronger and (Brandon) League getting more mature as well as the return of (Jeremy) Accardo? Where will you think their team ERA will be next year?

Antony Yang, Toronto

A: Don't forget Casey Janssen as well, or maybe Brett Cecil. So yeah, there is no reason why the Jays bullpen can't be just as good or better next year. But let's not push our luck here. There are question marks of one kind or another surrounding just about everybody but Downs-- who Ricciardi is now, for some reason, saying might end up in the rotation. There appears to be enough bullpen depth to ensure that they won't fall off the map, but personally I'll just be pleased if they're as good as they've been this season.


Q: Richard, Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the soon to be departed Burnett is 10-3 since Cito (Gaston) took over as skip - a marked departure from his career track and the projection that track would continue this year with a 6-7 record On June 20. Any insight on what Cito has done different to get A.J. to win - or is this just a coincidence (I also note Doc is a nice 8-3 since Cito's return - so it can't all be coincidence)

Michael Walter, Mississauga

A: Oh God. Look, Michael, I'm sure you're a nice guy and all, and your question shows genuine interest in the game, so I hesitate to shit down your fucking throat too much here, but are you goddamn well motherfucking shitting me?!???! There is no coincidence why Jays starters have been better since Cito got here-- it's because the Jays hitters have been scoring more runs for them. When Cito replaced Gibbers the Jays were averaging 4.01 runs per game this year. Under Cito's watch, they've averaged 4.86. There are other factors, of course-- remember AJ's fake nail at the start of the year? Because of it he struggled with his curveball early on, and has gradually got better with it since-- but run support is the big fucker. So no, if you're implying that Cito has somehow instilled a winning mentality in ol' .500 pitcher AJ, you'd be better off asking that of someone who doesn't think you've premised your question on a foundation of pure horseshit. Maybe try asking Griffin-- oh.


Q: Richard: Why do teams sign opt-outs that don't need to be activated until season's end? Surely it would make more sense from a management standpoint if the opt-out had to be activated at some point before the trade deadline, no? At least that way, the GM knows what they're dealing with, and other teams know where they stand with trades. It wouldn't seem to make too much difference to the player - the contract would still go to season's end, they'd just need to give notice ahead of time. Am I missing something, or is it just another (of many) Riccardi screw-ups?

Thane BenAngelo, St. Catharines, Ont.

A: A Ricciardi screw up? He doesn't get the player if he doesn't include the clause, so that is kind of a moot point. And actually, the same goes for your question of why the contract can't be structured to force the player to exercise the opt-out before the trade deadline. It's an interesting idea, and I mean, it's not as if as soon as AJ opted out, the manager would start making him throw 140 pitches every time out, knowing that he won't be back-- that's fucking ridiculous. But why the hell would AJ accept a clause like that? Imagine if he exercised his own opt-out clause mid-season, then blew out his arm a month later. Instead of heading to rehab with two guaranteed years of $12 million coming his way, he'd be a free agent facing the prospect of a full year off. When he finally got healthy, he wouldn't be an A-List free agent, he'd be a guy someone takes a flier on, with the hope that he'll regain his old form. The $24 million he was guaranteed before he opted out is reduced to, what, a few million? No, AJ only opts out under the condition that he is sure to do better on his next deal. Doing it mid-season and crossing his fingers that he'll stay healthy and keep pitching well is just too risky, so there's no way a player with the kind of leverage AJ had would have signed a contract like that.


Q: Can you see the Jays moving B.J. Ryan in the off-season? I would think that with the re-emergence of Brandon League, along with the hopefully successful returns of Janssen and Accardo, that B.J. would be expendable and that the Jays could use his salary money to go after a young front-line starter - assuming that A.J. opts out. Or how about moving B.J. to Milwaukee for shortstop J.J. Hardy? I read that the Brewers may be looking to move Hardy in light of a very promising prospect in their system. I would love to see Hardy's 20 home runs at short for the Jays.

Thanks Richard!

Eric Ashby, Toronto

A: The Jays' bullpen would take a significant hit if they moved BJ, though I agree with you that they could probably weather it. But the thing is, what makes BJ seem vaguely expendable to Jays fans is what's going to keep other teams from wanting him-- his contract. It would be great to free up that money or get a capable shortstop, and maybe there's a match out there that the Jays can explore, but teams are reluctant enough to drop $10 million on a one-inning guy, let alone to give up an asset for him. The way he's pitched the last couple of years, Scott Downs and the $7.75 million left on his deal, is much more likely to get a guy like Hardy-- assuming the Brewers were really ready to hand the keys to the prospect, Escobar.


Q: You talk about Aaron Hill (and Scott Rolen) returning being key to the Jays next year, and I can't argue it, but my question is: what are the chances for that? How bad off is Hill and will he be able to make it back?

Rusty Priske, Ottawa

A: Hill has started jogging, it was reported last week, and hasn't experienced any setbacks we've heard about, so that's a good sign. The Jays have been extra-cautious with him, it seems, and that's probably one of the smartest moves JP has made all year. We know this GM is all about optics, but at least that obsession didn't go as far as finding way to rush Hill back into the lineup. Maybe the doctors wouldn't have let that happen anyway. Regardless, it seems that most people expect he'll be ready to go in Spring '09.

Rolen's situation, on the other hand, is worrisome-- so much so that JP gave away more Triple-A amazing talent who other teams clearly want, Robinzon Diaz, to bring in Jose Bautista as insurance. The Jays will be much better off if Rolen somehow gets righted, but sadly, I don't know many people who are willing to bank on that happening. But don't fret too much here. They've played with the lesser Rolen during the half of this season where they didn't look completely fucking lost at the plate. A lot of people will be ready to shit on Ricciardi if a guy who isn't "championship calibre"-- i.e. Bautista-- winds up manning third for most of next year, but that's bullshit. An upgrade at DH/OF, be it Snider or otherwise, and a full season of Lind-- and shit, maybe even an upgrade at short-- and the Jays hitters will do a much better job of keeping the pitching staff from wanting to murder them all in their sleep than they did this year. Some real Rolen-esque production at third would just be gravy.


Q: One of the positives this year has been the Jays' defensive play. As Sportsnet regularly points out, the Jays lead the league in fielding percentage and have the fewest errors. Do you find this surprising, given the line-up changes every game? Also, what do we attribute their solid defensive play to?

Thanks. Garry Sears, Ottawa

A: Garry, the Jays are great defensively, but errors? Errors??? That's a pretty piss poor way to evaluate defensive play. I mean, if John McDonald fields 10 balls that are right at the extreme edge of his range, but makes an error on two of those, does that make him a worse defender than, say, Derek Jeter, whose range is such shit that he's watching all 10 of those balls go bouncing by for singles-- to the tune of a 1.000 fielding percentage?

As for why they're so good? Part of it is Brian Butterfield, who has long been praised for his work with infielders. But mostly, um... they're just really good defensive players. John McDonald is the best defensive shortstop in baseball, and Scott Rolen is probably the best defensive third baseman since Brooks Robinson (or so they say-- I haven't exactly seen them all). The rest of the infielders are-- now that Eckstein is gone-- above average, and with Butterfield on their side, they're well prepared.


Q: I had the pleasure of reading some excellent writers in my ten years in Toronto and I sincerely hope the readers and management of the Star appreciate the efforts of Richard Griffin and Doug Smith and others with their daily blogs. The Internet has changed the face of sports coverage and so has blogging. Mr. Griffin is on top of it in the Star. For those who read Richard and Doug on a daily basis you are totally informed of what' going on in an accurate and insightful manner. Here's hoping for a Cubs-Sox World Series!

Sincerely, Chuck Swirsky

A: Wow! Chuck Swirsky writing to little old me! Awesome! Anyway, I would probably puke if the Cubs won the World Series, though only because it will mean constant blowjobs for Reed Johnson from local fucks. But that's no knock on the Swirsk, and that doesn't mean I won't miss him-- are you kidding me? Watching the Raps without him calling it is going to feel really weird for a long time. And he's bang on about these writers in the Star-- more about Doug Smith than Griff, but whatever, he's right. Those guys do a great job of embracing the interactivity with readers that is such a big part of blog culture and keep their readers informed of what's going on, even as they're being preposterous and wrong all the time.