Baseball Faced Speculation
As left handed relievers continue to be the only free agents signing contracts, my thoughts wander to a particular southpaw who comes out of the Blue Jays bullpen to a little musical number that I like to call Duality by Slipknot.
Since even before P.R. Ricciardi's proclamation that the budgie was tight, Jays pundits have said that the team will focus on trades to improve its chances in the coming season, rather than the free agent market. Assuming that Richard Griffin's proposal to sell the farm is as idiotic as it is, any outbound Jays will have to come from their 25 man roster. A quick look at the barren cupboard of Major League ready assets reveals only one destination for trade bait: the bullpen.
Aside: Our friend John Brattain put together a nice summary of the Jays pantry as it stands right now:
On top of the yawing gap in the middle of the starting rotation there is no bona fide DH to speak of (too early to know if Travis Snider is ready to be a full time masher); the middle infield is uncertain while Aaron Hill continues to recover and the shortstop position still undecided; the infield corners could be excellent defensively and competent offensively or they could fall off a cliff; and while Rod Barajas occasionally wields a hot stick, nobody would consider Toronto catching to be upper-echelon.
Now, here's where I go off the rails a bit. We've already discussed the Mets as a possible trade destination for B.J. Ryan, but what about a team a little bit closer to home? What about the Detroit Tigers?
With the retirement of Todd Jones, coupled with the disappointments of Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney, the Tigers are desperate to round out their bullpen with a closer. In addition to this need, the most bandied about name in Tigers rumours has been outfielder Magglio Ordonez. Toss in shortstop John McDonald, as popular in Detroit as D12, and we could have the foundation of an interesting trade on our hands.
Yes, Ordonez is older, and last season was a bit of a decline from the previous year when he finished second in MVP balloting. However, the Jays have no shortage of young outfielders. And while vested options haven't had a history of working out well for Toronto, Ordonez's contract is set up so that if he doesn't get 520 ABs next season or 135 starts, his team has a $3 million buyout option.
Of course, in order for this to work out, the free agent closer market would have to dry out faster than Helen Mirren's hooch and Ricciardi would have to be willing to take on some additional salary, a move that his corporate masters are apparently loathe to do.
I know it's a bit of a stretch, but the point is that there are options available other than go after Manny or reload for 2010.
For your reading pleasure, the contracts of Ordonez and Ryan, thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Magglio Ordonez of
5 years/$75M (2005-09), plus 2010 & 2011 club options
- $6M signing bonus (due 11/05, not guaranteed)
- 05:$6M, 06:$15M, 07:$12M, 08:$15M, 09:$18M, 10:$15M club option ($3M buyout), 11:$15M club option (no buyout)
- Tigers may void contract after 2005 if Ordonez spends 25 or more days on disabled list in 2005 with recurrence of pre-existing left knee injury
- options guaranteed at $18M for 2010 & $15M for 2011 if Ordonez has:
- 135 starts or 540 PAs in 2009, or
- 270 starts or 1,080 PAs in 2008-09
- award bonus: $0.1M for All Star selection
- signed as a free agent 1/05
- 3 years/$29.5M (2002-04)
- 02:$6.5M, 03:$9M, 04:$14M
- 1 year/$3.75M (2001), avoided arbitration
- 1 year/$0.425M (2000)
- 1 year/$0.305M (1999)
- 1 year/$0.175M (1998)
- 1 year/$0.15M (1997)
- agent: Scott Boras (formerly Reich, Katz & Landis)
- ML service: 10.032
5 years/$47M (2006-10)
- signed as a free agent 11/05 (at signing, largest-ever contract for reliever)
- $10M signing bonus ($6M paid in 2006, $4M paid in 2007)
- 06:$2M, 07:$5M, 08:$10M, 09:$10M, 10:$10M
- 1 year/$2.6M (2005)
- avoided arbitration 1/05
- performance bonuses: $50,000 each for 45, 50, 55 & 60 games
- award bonus: $25,000 for making All-Star team
- 1 year/$1.275M (2004), avoided arbitration 2/04 ($1.55M-$1M)
- 1 year/$0.7625M (2003), avoided arbitration ($0.825M-$0.7M)
- agent: John Courtright
- ML service: 8.003
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15 comments:
helen mirren's hooch? really?
I don't quite see how they sell that in Detroit.
You could do worse for an old broad than Mirren.
As a Tigers fan I can see Ordonez being shipped out for less salary in return but any taker would probably have to get Robertson or Willis as well. From everything I've read the Jays don't have the budget for that.
The Tigers need starting pitching way more than a closer. Why would they give up a perfectly good player in Ordonez just for a closer.
It depends on what happens with Kenny Rogers and Freddy Garcia. There are also internal answers at SP. Closer and SS are the two major needs.
Freddy Garcia is a FA now isn't he? He'd be a great pickup for us as a 5th starter.
I think they've made no bones about two things this offseason. 1) They're willing to unload Ordonez and 2) They want a closer.
Someone had a comment that I'm trusting to be true on one of the MLBTR boards saying that the Tigers had the third most blown saves in the league last year. A revamped bullpen and a shortstop with defensive range seem to be their priorities and it's two things that the Jays can afford to trade.
Ryan & JMac make 12m together, and Ordonez makes 18m this year. When you consider that the team would need to sign a DH anyway that would cost at least 6m if it didn't make a trade like this, it really isn't increasing payroll at all. This trade would take payroll to the 85m range, leaving the perfect amount to still go out and pursue some SP. And they can worry about its effects on the 2010 and 2011 payroll at the trade deadline - if you are contending you keep him, if not you move him. The important thing here is dumping Ryan's salary when you don't need him and picking up a quality, affordable bat for 2009.
I'd throw in any prospect not named Snider or Cecil to make this deal.
Fuck you Parkes...I brought up this Ryan/Ordonez rumour months ago on this site...go give Stoeten a blowjob and leave the rumours to the experts...
Not gon happen.
Fuck off Parkes, brought to you by Nicklefuck
Maggs? This is JP Ricciardi, he NEVER goes after the big dog, he has a thing for sidekicks. Always looking for the cheaper version.
The Tigers are actually a great potential trade partner for the Jays, both teams handcuffed themselves thinking that last year was the year. The Tigers need relief, the Jays rarely have a lead to relieve. The Jays need offense, the Tigers got tons to spare. Trade couldn't be Magglio though, his contract is an unmovable albatross and he is still a very key part in Detroit.
The JP Ricciardi special that pops out looking at the Tigers roster is Gary Sheffield. Tigers likely don't want him, most of America probably doesn't want him, why not send him to Canada. I bet Sheff would love to play in the East again. He had a decent second half, coming off injuries and somewhat of an upside. That's a Blue Jays special right there. One year left on the contract, this trade would maybe even come with draft picks. Probably better in the big picture than giving Milton Bradley a few years for the exact same potential output (good or bad).
It would have to be Ryan for either team to really have interest, neither is gonna wanna add payroll. The Jays aren't gonna get talent AND cut payroll, why not try to catch some lightning. The Jays could use a personality in the lineup that's for sure. They've proven to be risk takers, so health can't be a huge concern, it's all about upside with the Jays usually. A guy that could add fear in the middle of a lineup and maybe even fire up Vernon and Rios, could pay off big time.
How is Ordonez's contract an albatross?
It's actually quite easy to manage. If he plays just as much as last year, as Parkes pointed out, it's a team option.
Don't see your logic there.
He lost all credibility when he brought up trading draft picks.
FAIL!
#1.) TigerFan I stand corrected, I should have said: Magglio's contract is an unmovable (to the Jays) albatross. Many teams could make room for Magglio but not the Jays.
"options guaranteed at $18M for 2010 & $15M for 2011 if Ordonez has:
135 starts OR 540 PA in 2009, OR
270 starts OR 1080 PA in 2008-09"
2008 stats, 144 GS, 623 PA
After his 2008 season, Ordonez would become unaffordable for the Jays if he can start 126 games, OR get 457 PA.
Two years at 21M would be great but not if it means the guy didn't top 450 PA. It is 3 years at 48M if he even has an average year, which is unfortunately out of the Jays reach.
#2.) Anon 106pm: Who says I had credibility anyways?
The real FAIL! Goes to Anon 106pm for reading comprehension skills.
"One year left on the contract, this trade would maybe even come with draft picks" ...
I admit I likely get an F for my wording.
Sorry if it read "The Jays should trade some draft picks to shore up their goaltending".
The intended message was: by acquiring an upcoming free agent, the Jays might receive draft picks for compensation when that player inevitably decides to leave Toronto.
I realize Magglio is a potential FA too, but he'd need a dud season to become FA therefore he would either not be a Type A, or would cost us some future Doc money. No thanks.
I also realize that I'm arguing for Gary Sheffield who likely would not be Type A or hit 450 PA, but I'm trying to predict what the Jays will do, not what they should do.
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