Blown Away?
It's very possible that I'm getting suckered here by some ambiguous language, but check out what Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman-- who always includes the Jays in this conversation-- wrote today about the suitors for Manny:
The Dodgers announced they made an offer for the second highest real-dollar salary in history, and while true, SI.com first learned the deal was $45 million over two years. That means it's only for $5 million more than the two club options Ramirez went to great lengths to erase before he was traded to Los Angeles in the first place. Ramirez went on to play superman in Hollywood, batting .396 with 17 home runs and 53 RBIs in 53 games, the really turning it on the playoffs (.520). Unless the Dodgers truly get serious, sources indicate to SI.com that the Orioles, Blue Jays and Yankees, three AL teams that can offer a DH role, or perhaps even Philadelphia (which lost out on Holliday and whose manager, Charlie Manuel, was Ramirez's first hitting coach), could blow away L.A.'s offer.
Blow away? The Jays?
Now, maybe this is just a reference to the fact that the Jays' parent company (what's their name again?) is a communications behemoth who, if they were so inclined (which they never are), could match the Yankees dollar-for-dollar on any contract they wanted-- in which case, it doesn't really mean much. But the fact that Heyman keeps on putting the Jays out there as legitimate suitors, the fact that it makes complete and total sense for the team on the field and the fact that these Jays are a property with some serious consumer confidence issues, makes it seem not entirely far-fetched that Uncle Ted could fish around his pocket for some change and finance the move.
Yes, I know this is crazy talk, but there is a part of me-- almost certainly retarded-- that can honestly see this happening. Sort of like the way that nobody thought, before they opened the vault and got creative, that the Jays would be able to re-up Vernon Wells. And obviously that worked out ... really... um....
But we know Manny likes it here-- for those who aren't regular readers, we've mentioned several times Manny is known to have half-jokingly pined for JP to sign him during Sox trips to Toronto. The Jays were his favourite team as a kid, and he likes how he can blend into the nightlife here without anybody giving a shit who he is, because I mean, it's not like he's Matt fucking Stajan-- so, seriously, maybe there's reason to hope. No, you're being ridiculous.
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84 rational and reasonable comments:
Street, Smith, Gonzalez for Holliday?
For realsies?
Yeah, I didn't get that one.
ManRam made $160 mil in his last contract, and 30-40 mil before that... so in his career ManRam has made upwards of $200 million
It can be reasonable said that an extra $10 million in his next contract won't be the be all and end all for him.
So, signing with Toronto for $65-70 mil over 3, as opposed to the $80 over 3 the Yanks can offer isn't totally unreasonable... especially considering he would be entering the fortress of solitude in Toronto
That's all he's been bitching about his entire career, man the fuck up ManRam and come to Toronto
This isn't happening. Let's pretend for a second that Uncle Ted opens the vault. The only way it makes sense to bring Manny here is to market the shit out of him as the new cornerstone of the franchise.
That means pictures of him plastered all over the city---and there would go his anonymity, and, hence, one of his major reasons for coming here.
Shhhhhh! You'll blow the whole deal!
Manny wanted out of Boston from Day 1 because of the limelight....there's no way he's going to NY.
It could be argued that, being smaller, and more baseball crazy, Boston may be even worse as far as limelight for a guy like him goes. I'm not about to argue that, though.
I say it takes 5yrs at 120M to land Manny. It depends if Mr. Rogers views this as a wise buisness investment. Maybe if someone could sell him on it, its possible?
I don't think anyone is going to give him more than four-- and even that's a stretch. But it's going to take a shitload, that's for sure.
3/66 or 4/80
4 with an option?
I can see this guy still producing at 41 and Boras seems to think 42,
but It wouldnt suprise me if someone threw 5 at him.
I have a weird, probably totally illogical feeling that they're going to make a big push for him too.
It's so strange, because it doesn't seem at all plausible, but it just makes so much sense. This is probably the one guy in all of baseball who, if you were Paul Beeston, you could convince the suits to open up the vault for. I know Clemens didn't really change things here, but Clemens was just a great pitcher, and only pitching every five days. Manny is a great hitter, an everyday player, AND a great character. Guys like Pujols and A-Rod are better, but even they wouldn't have anywhere close to the impact of bringing Manny here, from an attention and marketing standpoint, and it's a perfect fit on the field too-- so all of this goes right back to Rogers' bottom line.
If it were any other player, I doubt they'd see the value in the investment. But Manny? Even if they're just the whorish dicks we think they are, think of how many eyes are going to fall upon their fucking cell phone ads if you had a summer of Manny-drama like this year. I honestly think there's enough substance here to get the attention of some of the bean counters who presumably have the final say in whether the Jays would be allowed to go over-budget on something like this. Of course, that's all speculation, because I have no idea how anything actually works down there, but... fuck... it almost makes too much sense. And when you think about it, Rogers wouldn't be increasing the budget by the amount of the contract-- they'd be increasing it by the amount over-budget that the contract would put them. With AJ's money freed up, it's really only what, $10M extra per year? Yeah, they'd need some more to do some other things, but... do you think the Jays are $10M more profitable per year-- considering all factors, like the value of the Rogers ads placed in the Dome and during broadcasts-- with Manny on the team? These figures are entirely out my ass, and I wouldn't exactly say that I have a fucking clue what I'm talking about, but yeah, I do think Manny's worth that much, all things considered. The more I think about it, the more I think that Rogers would be stupid NOT to pursue this with extreme seriousness.
Of course, like someone has already said, this is all premised on the idea of Manny being at the centre of all kinds of media attention, which is a big part of why he would want to be here in the first place. Though... I don't know how much it would affect him when he's out in the clubs.
I didn't word that first sentence well, but you know what I mean, I'm sure...
It does totally make sense, and it is totally possible. Move a couple countracts, Im sure you could find a suitor for B.J. Ryan, if it came down too the 10M. Fuck Lyle Overbay and his 7M, ship him out for a bag of balls.
Both guys are replaceable with guys already on hand.
Bringing Manny and a starting pitcher here at the expense of AJ and BJ (traded away?) would be fantastic. We could all confidently say playoff contender! Shout PLAYOFF CONTENDER! PLAYOFFS!!!
However, I don't think the hold up with the Dodgers deal is the cost per year - it's the number of years on the deal.
Manny wants 4+ years, and signing Manny into his 40s might be enough to scare away the Yanks and Dodgers. I'm still not holding my breath, I'm only crossing my fingers.
If JP really wants to make a run and save his job - I hope he grows some balls, convinces Teddy to open his wallet a little more and makes a bold move like this.
I'm also with Yakko - Holliday couldn't fetch more in a trade??? WTF?
And seriously - everyone needs to ease up on the Overbay hate. The guy is one year removed from a broken hand and is pretty damn consistent.
Another year of reliable D and a .800+ OPS from the someone who should be hitting 6th or later in the lineup is more than fine by me.
Street is pretty good, and there's only one year left for Holliday, so I'm not nearly as surprised at how little they got for him as I am with the Olsen/Willingham trade.
Well how about that. Alex Rios just won the NL Cy Young award.
If the Jays want to devote all of their resources over the next 3-4 yrs and allow themselves little payroll flexibility they could afford ManRam for around 3/72 or 4/90. I think its very likely that those are around the figures he ends up signing for. The Jays are going to spend $100 million in 2009and considering VW's contract spike in 2010, I expect that the payroll going forward is at least $110 million.
The savings of Burnett, Ryan and Overbay ($58 million) could allow the Jays to spend $50 million for Manny over the next 2 years and a creative backloading of a Halladay extension (crossing my fingers) could keep the payroll around $110-$115 million for '11 and '12, but there would be no money for an expensive SS/3B/SP without another payroll spike. So it's possible to do it without changing the payroll pattern that seems to be established, but it requires confidence in the minor league pitching and positional prospects or a willingness to make some fucking trades.
BJ may be able to land someone like Jonathan Sanchez (considering how little it took to acquire Scott Olsen) and perhaps a pitching prospect can be traded for a SS prospect (R Romero for Brandon Wood?) ManRam may be the best hitter in baseball and Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, which I'd say is an excellent way to build a deep lineup and rotation...
The best argument for this debate is that Manny carried a mediocre offense into the playoffs last year.
Can he do the same in Toronto?
"The best argument for this debate is that Manny carried a mediocre offense into the playoffs last year.
Can he do the same in Toronto?"
I don't like looking at it that way simply because our rotation is thinner this yr and we don't play in the NL West. However, we'd have a full year of Manny. It's obviously a fucking gamble, but it could save JPs job if we make the playoffs or get him fired if Manny is simply a .900 OPS guy with an attitude...
Just a quick note to say that, it doesn't really matter where Manny signs, he's going to be making a lot of money, and the investor who pays him is going to advertise him as much as possible, whether it be in T.O. or elsewhere. Hard to imagine he's going to get scared off by a team putting up pictures of him, cause if he is, he can't go anywhere.
That said, quit getting my hopes up Stoeten, you prick!!
Why would Manny want to come to Toronto (besides anonymity)? The team is likely to finish fourth in 2009, AJ is about to leave town, the offense blows, the pitching is full of question marks, Boston and NY have more money to compete going forward, Tampa has more young talent, JP periodically goes off on players (his own and others), the fieldturf would pound Manny's knees and back, the farm system is inferior to Boston and Tampa's, and the team is heading into unknown territory with JP's contract expiring in 2010, Halladay potentially becoming too expensive for Toronto, and Wells starts costing $20M+/year.
"Well how about that. Alex Rios just won the NL Cy Young award."
Hahaha.
I like the idea of offering Manny good money with performance incentives that take it into historic range. ie. $18M guaranteed, plus $50k/RBI up to 120, plus $150K/HR up to 40. Or you could structure the incentives to start kicking in partway, like $300k for homers 21-40 and $150k for RBIs 81-120. That's $30M if he maxes them out (which, if he did it every year over a 6 year contract, would have him passing Bonds--not that I necessarily want to offer these terms over 6 years). Boras would probably hate the idea, though, even though I doubt he'll get $30M guaranteed anywhere.
Manny would sign here if you gave him some sort of crazy reason to do so. Make up a story about George Bell making him pancakes or something and tell him where the salsa clubs in Toronto are, and he'll sign...I agree, Stoeten, that having him hear makes complete, almost maddening, sense. But I'm not holding my breath for it to happen...
Everyone loves Reed Johnson
http://www.thefightins.com/
People seem to think that because JP is known to lie, he's probably lying that he's not considering making big moves this off-season. The thing is that while JP is a liar, but he's an even bigger disappointment.
So you should expect to be dissapointed when he's lying, and when he's telling the truth
what happened to the DJF end of season podcast? weren't you bumblefucks gonna throw one together?
Did it suddenly get cloudy in anonymousville ?
I guess the Jays are in the mix until Manny actually signs on the dotted line. Cut Boras out of the equation, and Manny is here!
Manny can smoke all the ganja he wants...thats why he'll sign...
Boston is twice as good as Toronto!
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-11-10-rankings-explainer_N.htm
Most of the category details are total crap, but the Jays are still grouped with teams like Florida, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and KC. It has to be somewhat indicative.
Obviously, MLB's anti-trust status protects teams like LA and NY from having a third team in the most lucrative markets. Hence, franchise value goes up- payroll goes up- wins usually follow- allowing a chance to go to the playoffs. That accounts for three categories right there. Ta-da! It does show that the Jays are not doing a good enough job of getting the most out of the Canadian (even the Ontario) market.
-brent in Korea
PS Where's the podcast?
If we did sign Manny would we have enough left over to sign Halladay for a few more years as well? All this on top of Vernon's contract. Plus bring in another starter in the rotation?
If we did land Manny (or any elite bat) and signed a decent starting pitcher the Jays playoff hopes are looking good. Halladay/McGowan/'decent free agent' could still look very good as a playoff rotation.
Fuck off Parkes
Where's the fuckin' podcast already? Is Scott Boras your fuckin' agent? You fuckers don't like baseball that much. FUCK!
There you go getting my hopes up again. Fuck you, Stoeten.
And fuck Matt Stajan too.
Didn't you guys hear that Manny isn't even that good. Jeff Kent totally made his stats better by being in the same lineup. Just like Bonds and Berkman in previous years, guys are just getting rich off batting near Jeff Kent.
Manny's no stranger to finding a good lineup to make him better. Riding shotgun to Ortiz, Nomar, Thome, and others throughout the years. He'll go somewhere like Texas so he can let Hamilton help him out and be back in a hitters park.
If JP can somehow convince Manny that batting near Rios and Wells will make him better, the Jays might have a shot though.
Pulling off a Manny heist might even be acceptable as the only move of the offseason. It would definitely leave zero room for any other moves. Offense out of SS/C, and pitching depth wouldn't be a glaring problem with a killer heart of the lineup. Rios, Wells and Manny would make up quite the gauntlet. Might get swept in the postseason, but I would be ecstatic with just a one game play-in, let alone a playoff berth.
I think if Manny wants to avoid attention, the AL East would be a bad idea though. 9 games in Boston and 9 in NY would be a zoo and not even close to worth it for Manny.
Jays would be better off taking some cheap gambles if they're not gonna make a big trade splash. Some cheap speed or a lefty starter. Randy Johnson, Corey Patterson? Not overly appealing but the upside is there.
Wikipedia already has Cliff Lee written up as the Cy young winner.
Bastards.
manny being able to blend in in toronto? ya fuckin right.. even retarded leaves fans would be sucking him off in the streets.
Come on, Globe and Mail:
"Nationals, Panthers make swap".
The world's first inter-sport trade.
JJ Hardy is apparently available, and Brewers are in the market for a closer, seems like a good match to me. (BJ Ryan for Hardy). Then Sign Manny. Trade either Adam Lind, or Lyle Overbay for a reliable 3/4/5 Starter and this team is ready to rock.
I'm not sure the Brewers will want to pick up BJ's salary. Then again, they paid Gagne $10M.
@ The Ack:
Really, Globe & Fail messed up AGAIN? That copy editor needs to be canned ASAP.
ny aint getting manny.. they'll need bolt cutters to get those dreds out
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/Baseball/article/535223
Griffin is a moron, Last place? How in the hell are the O's going to get that much better? And to suggest that it is because of the new ballpark that the Yanks will have the extra cash to toss at Burnett.
Have you not been paying attention for the last Decade and a half Griffin. The Yanks have been doing that already!
johnny g u are a fucktard. that new ballpark for the yanks enables them to sign every top free agent if they wanted too. they can push their payroll to over 250 million, with all their psl's, boxes, club seats. that new ball park give the yanks all the other revenue streams the other teams with new stadiums have had for many years now.
WAKE THE FUCK UP U DUMB FUCKER
Please they could of done all of that before. This just means they will be operating with a higher cash flow.
The extra revenue streams the yanks didn't have were made up by the stupid massive amount of fans they have across America and Canada not to mention a massive market they operate in locally. Television rights alone more then likely give them more money then most other teams.
ESPN continues to refer to the Jays as one of the primary suitors for Manny. They cite the Dodgers' unwillingness to go over 2 years, and the fact that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets either don't want him or have their attention on other needs as reasons why the Jays could end up with him.
If Toronto is willing to give him a 4 year/80M contract or thereabouts, I suspect Manny may sign here.
Toronto has never been a team to be THAT committed to winning, though.
I'll laugh when the team signs Giambi this offseason. I guess we're not selling our soul for that steroid user, but we were for Bonds.
johnny g u are still a stupid fuck. The stadium will bring them even more on top of that. That means that instead of just breaking the bank for sabathia, they can now sign both sabathia and aj, in addition to whatever bats they sign.
From Blair Sept 24.
"In a 2006 bond prospectus prepared in conjunction with New York City's Industrial Development Agency, the Yankees estimated a new stadium will generate at least $250-million from ticket and luxury-suite revenues, compared to less than $200-million in the old park. The team could net $30-million annually on concessions."
Add that to what they make from merchandise, sponsorships, ad revenue and tv/ radio rights, holy shit.
Ok yes they are going to earn more, From 200 up to 250. An extra 50 million is not what was holding the yanks back from signing all of the big name agents.
Plus there's the incentive to open the new stadium with a very strong team. They will go above and beyond this offseason, I would put a lot of money on multiple large signings.
bet its more than 50 million and I don't see an extra 50 cents from uncle teddy, dollar is down again today.
4th or 5th place!!!!!!!!!
Alex - I agree, but in that case the reason they will put a lot of money on multiple large signings is because OF the stadium. It becomes the reason for the signings not the reason they CAN do the signings.
Anonymous@3:53: Free Agent Period hasn't even opened yet how do you know? Plus Rogers has already increased the payroll a crapload since he took over.
According to Forbes the yanks have had an estimated 327Million in revenues for 2007 (2008 figures not out until the start of 09) with an estimated operating income of -47.3 million. This number is mis-leading because that revenue number only takes into account ticket sales and merchandise/concessions sold at the stadium. So let's take the extra 50 million and add it up to 380-400 for rounding sakes. What does that mean? Pretty much nothing considering the bulk of the money still comes from television and advertising revenue.
While YES doesn't release any official data it was reported that the revenue was 340.5 million in 2006 with about 136-150 million of that being translated into cash flow.
And before anyone goes and tries to point out that "technically" the Yankee's don't own YES because the company that owns both the Yankee's and YES operates them both as seperate entities.
While that may be true every year YES pays the Yankee's a "rights fee". Most businesses are set up this way for legal reasons and does not mean that most of the revenue is not going into the Yankee System.
say we get manny....
and obviously lose aj...
dump BJ's salary, which shouldn't be impossible if we're not asking for much coming back, and go with League/Downs/Acorn/Carlsen in the pen....
and we maybe dump overbay's salary...
and we generally ignore our Starting Pitching problems (outside of bringing in some cheap projects, and hope something sticks between them and the young guys slated in there now)....
and we settle for marco at SS....
if we lose overbay, Manny is LF/DH and Lind, Snider, and (uhhhh) Bautista tri-platoon for the remaining LF/1B/DH spot, and hope something works out....
well, for 2009, that's a decent team that isn't much more expensive....
our pitching will probably be worse, but our hitting should be better (manny being manny, law of averages dictating unlikelihood of everyone having 3rd straight dumpy years) and maybe even much better...
i'm not saying we'd definitely be a playoff team, but.....
then in 2010, we'll have that starting rotation we all had boners for before tommy marcum surgery (remember back when no one cared if aj left because we would have Doc, Marcum, McGowan, Litsch, and Whover).....
wouldn't that be cool?
OOhh man. I hope they get Manny.
I hope they think positive and just sign the fuck'n guy.
I wish they'd just go nut's and sign a couple of wicked starters too.
I also collect toe nails and eat them when I get nervous.
Padres are having cutting salaries. Goodbye Trevor Hoffman, Jake Peavy.
I don't know what BJ's $ deal is but Hoffman was looking at 4 mil for one year when he walked.
Trevor fucking Hoffman.Oh yeah.
Joe Sheehan at BP notes that the Rockies got fleeced in the Holliday trade. I agree. Why can't JP ever pull one of these off? The Jays' equivalent to Street/Smith/Gonzalez would be something like Ryan/Romero/Lind. The above Jays' trio might even be better than the A's package.
And I would do that deal in a second if I were JP. Suddenly you have a *great* OF in Holliday/Wells/Rios. You can still go after Manny/Giambi/whoever to play DH and further strengthen the offense. Snider can start in LF in 2010 when Holliday becomes a FA (giving the Jays another 2 draft picks). The bullpen would still be rock solid with League, Downs, Carlson et al.
Credit Beane for another bright move. Meanwhile, the Jays are piling up AAAA pitchers. Nice.
Ryan makes way more than Street, which would be less appealing to a team trying to cut payroll.
Actually, JP did pull off a similar trade involving lesser players: Overbay for Bush, Jackson and Gross. That was a good trade for Ricciardi (it would have been a lot better had Overbay not broken his hand).
True, but apparently the Rockies are trying to flip Street anyway, so payroll may be less important. And Ryan is arguably a better pitcher, even after having TJ surgery. And long-term, at this point, I would rather have Romero/Lind than Smith/Gonzalez. Smith's BB:K ratio does not bode well, and Lind (even with his uneven performance in 2008) appears to be a better hitter than Gonzalez.
Huston Street is only 24 and makes half of what the Jays pay Ryan.
Street always can't get lefties out, genius.
So where can I get my Ramirez jersey?
Reading that sentence hurt my head.
the rockies didn't get fleeced, greg smith and huston street are good good pitchers (smith looked very good against the jays this year) and carlos gonzalez is 'highly touted' and was the key to the dan haren trade - for one year of a coors-hitter in a pitcher's park? that's the most un-billy-beanesque move he's made in a long time. are they 'going for it' this year with holliday, cust, and a broken down eric chavez? terrrrrible move, unless beane thinks he's going to flip holliday in may for something even better than a proven reliever, a lefty with potential, and a centre-fielder with a high ceiling.
The Rockies got fleeced because (a) Street is overrated and will soon be overpriced, (b) Smith's peripheral numbers (21 HR in 190 IP, 87:111 BB:K ratio) and post all-star performance (5.18 ERA) suggest that he's actually not that great, (c) Gonzalez may be athletic, but he played a full half-season and "hit" 242/273/361 in 302 AB, suggesting that he's never going to be more than an average player - and even that might be a stretch.
The A's, on the other hand, get an excellent hitter who (a) can be flipped at the trade deadline for more promising talent, or (b) produces two high draft picks in 2010. Plus they get a year of solid offensive production.
Colorado would have been much better off going for quality instead of quantity. In other words, they should have traded Holliday for one or two very good prospects with higher ceilings than these three.
I'm sorry, dude. We don't take kindly to intelligent comments in these parts.
Sorry, I'll refrain from now on.
Did I mention I rented Dumb & Dumber the other night? The salt shaker scene was pretty funny.
It has been months since I've been on Blair's blog, so this could be old news, but has anyone seen his bio under his very angry picture?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/baseball
Classic.
there are tons of teams looking for closers right now, and street has value because he's under team control at a reasonable price. he could have been moved on his own to fill voids in mil, nym, laa, det, cle, etc. etc.
re: smith - this was his first season in the majors. he avged 96 pitches per game, and threw over 3000 pitches in 190 innings. i don't think it's a stretch to say he tired in the second half - happens to a lot of rookies, (see edinson volquez). some of his other peripherals, like the .243 baa look pretty good.
as for gonzalez, are you saying 85 games was enough to give up on the key player in the haren deal, and the 18th ranked prospect on BP's top 100 last year?
and holliday has always had huge splits away from coors. he's never played in mcafee, but let's look at his numbers in a similar stadium, say, petco, over the last 3 years - 96 games, 250/321/406/727. 3 jacks, 11 rbi. awesome. playing in mcafee can only bring his value down if the 'flip' happens next year.
still a bad deal by beane.
http://www.sportsnet.ca//thewire/baseball/2008/11/13/yankees_ready_to_blow/
great name for a link... could only be better if they extended it to ... /yankees_ready_to_blow_cc_aj_and_3_other_large_men_at_the_same_time/
'as for gonzalez, are you saying 85 games was enough to give up on the key player in the haren deal, and the 18th ranked prospect on BP's top 100 last year?'
Yup.
3 writers left Halladay off their ballots....assholes.
Unreal.
hit .245 in his first 85 major league at-bats "suggesting that he's never going to be more than an average player - and even that might be a stretch."
that's not an intelligent comment.
Swisher to the Yankees for a minor league arm (bye bye, Giambi?), Gregg to the Cubbies for a minor league arm...things are happening. Hotstove, baby.
Is it just me... or would Swisher have been a good fit with the Jays?
I would prefer a better bat (Manny, et al) but Swisher seemed like a more realistic slugger, available at a cheap price after an off year...
Maybe I am just among the many who thought we could have matched or beaten the Holliday deal.. or the deal with the Marlins... seems like teams are willing to accept less to deal salary.. why aren't the Jays making a good deal?
Nah, Swisher was shit this year, would have cost assets out of a farm system that's still not very strong. Holliday is only on a one year deal, also would have cost them players, and has some question marks with regard to the Coors effect. I'd much prefer the Jays wait and go after a Bradley, Giambi or, yes, a Manny.
swisher would've at least help the jays produce better commercials...
thunderbolt rules
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