Longest. Post. Ever.

OK, so I haven’t been particularly checked-in to the Jays over the last couple weeks. Full disclosure: this kind of thing happens to me every year—it’s just that in odd-numbered years there’s no epic Dutch footballing flame out to be distracted by, so this time it looks like I’m just being a lazy piece of shit. Which… well… OK, maybe.

Obviously there has been more than enough fodder for some posts over the last couple weeks, apart from the unspeakable series of clusterfucks that keep taking place on the field—though, if you’ll permit me to shift into full-on apologist mode for a moment (and if you let me throw down a pre-emptive fuck you to all the mouth breathers ready to jump into the comments with “meuh… you really ARE an apologist”), the Jays’ season has been bled to death by the the 2-8 road trip they just completed, and the 0-9 road trip in May, the former of which included three extra inning losses and not a single game lost by more than two runs, and the latter of which included three one-run losses and a two-run walk-off loss in extra innings. I know it’s way, way, way too hypothetical to say this (so again, pre-emptive fuck off, dicks), but minus those two fucking voyages of the Titanic, they’re 42-29. Which is just a long-winded way of saying, they’re really—honestly—not all that far away from where we'd all like them to be, even if it completely doesn't feel that way.

Still, the last few weeks have been especially dispiriting—and coming from a Jays fan, that should say a lot.

The feeling—a complete reversal from two months ago—seems to be that, even if the Jays keep Roy Halladay for next year, get Shaun Marcum back, get Casey Janssen back, get a year on a steep learning curve out of Brett Cecil’s way, and even get Dustin McGowan back, they’d still have… what?

A team that simply doesn’t have the offense to compete in the American League East.

But is that true? I have no fucking idea. It sure didn’t look like it the first forty games of the year—or the last third of last year—so it doesn’t necessarily have to be true, but here we are, smack in the middle of another year where the fuckawful hitting—especially with RISP—appears to vastly outweigh the good.

And it's from there that things kinda get complicated…

Going forward, money is an obvious issue—mostly because ownership are cheap fucks who don’t give two shits about the team, other than as content for their radio and TV networks, and as a way to get eyeballs on their giant sucking carnival of 10,000 watt ads.

The Jays, most assume, will have little-to-no wiggle room in the upcoming off-season—and it's not exactly like lately there have been any calming assurances from the unassailable Mr. Beeston, who could clear the fans’ apprehension with a simple, final declaration of where the team, and specifically the payroll, is going.

Marco Scutaro, who has done everything the team has asked of him this season, looking like the natural lead-off hitter that few thought he could ever be, will be a free agent in the winter, along with Rod Barajas. If Scutaro gets Type-A status, meaning he’ll likely net two first round draft picks when signing with another team, the Jays almost certainly won't re-sign him, leaving a giant hole at shortstop.

Even if he isn’t Type-A and they want to bring him back, they’ve already got over $82M committed to long-term deals for seven players—plus one corpse, the just-released BJ Ryan—for 2010, which is more than their full 2009 payroll.

Are the Cheap Fucks at Rogers willing to increase payroll just to maintain what’s been an underwhelming status quo?

Again I have no answer, but anything I’ve ever learned about Rogers says that no, they really probably aren’t.

So then where the fuck does the team go from here?

Well, there are a couple of easy solutions to freeing up some salary. Scott Rolen has been beyond fantastic so far this season—despite his lack of home run power—and could probably be traded to free salary—though his contract and history of health problems limit his value, and reports are now saying that the Jays intend to keep him until his contract ends (boner!... but also… er... what?).

Alex Rios could be moved, especially since his contract isn’t nearly as bad a lot of fans would like to believe, and his ability to play centre make him a much more attractive option than he'd be if he were an OK hitting right-fielder (helloooo NL).

But, um... how the fuck do the Jays trade those guys and still somehow make themselves better next year? After all, isn’t that the point of trying to free salary?

I mean, are they going to sign free agents who will fill the vacancies for less cash, and yet be better than Rios and Rolen would have been?

Can the Jays bring back players who will be better next year than the guys they’re giving up? Why the fuck would anybody else make such a deal?

So the Jays’ balls are a little bit in a salad shooter here, provided the Cheap Fucks want to keep them there.

They need cash—which, at least at some point, was theoretically promised, but nobody seems so confident of now—just to maintain the not-good-enough status quo. If they have to flail about moving players to to find enough budget just to keep the roster they already have, what exactly is the fucking point?

This, obviously, is why the shitstorm of insufferable Halladay rumours have carried weight with so many people, and why we have to take them seriously, even though the little midget’s report that started it all didn’t really say anything different than what we’ve ever heard from JP before.

Now, like I said off the top, the team really isn’t that far off—and forgive my naivite, but if the Cheap Fucks see the value—and, opposed to trading Halladay and starting over, I think there is value—in finding a way to make them better next year, I really do believe they could make a legitimate run at the playoffs.

However, if they won’t, and Ricciardi—or whoever holds the GM’s post—will be given no room to reshape the roster in any meaningful way—apart from crossing his fingers for Travis Snider (again), or, perhaps, making the potentially-dangerous move of trading some of the young pitching that’s been stockpiled, or shit, even if they agree to re-sign Scutaro—then how is there any sense in not just fucking getting on with it, starting the fire sale, and getting a shit-tonne for Doc?

Is Shaun Marcum and the promise of Travis Snider really what this team is missing? Without any money to fill the hole at short, or holes potentially created by selling Rios or Rolen, it's just a little bit fucking hard to say that they are.

As always in this division (pre-emptive fuck off to whoever is about to bring up the Rays—go look at the comments on the post below), the key is the money—and hopefully, internally, the team knows what that score is, because if the Cheap Fucks are just going to sit around with their thumbs in their asses, unwilling to let on either way how much money will be available next year, the Jays will, as always, end up seeing their best moves in hindsight.

So at this point… what’s a fan to say? It’s not really a great excuse for my laziness, because this shit is always beyond our control, but normally we at least like to think we understand all the parameters well-enough to play armchair GM. In this case… I don’t know what the fuck. It’s not like it’s an easy decision to go straight into rebuilding the team, especially if you’re Rogers, who has never appeared to want anything but to milk the Jays property for all its worth. It will be a long, hard road back to legitimacy for the team if they do, but if they move Doc, there’s no question that’s where its headed.

So really, all the fucking shit that’s been written about the team in the last couple of weeks, all the scenarios and rumours, all the fans so sure Halladay is gone, all the sober commentary so sure nobody can meet the price... nobody has it straight, because we just don't fucking have all the pieces to the puzzle. And what scares the shit out of me as someone who invests far too much psychic energy, not to mention actual fucking time and effort, into this fucking radio friendly unit shitter of a team, is that I have a sinking feeling the Jays don't even fucking have it straight either.

The men in charge don’t seem to know which fucking way to turn. Or if they do, the sure as fuck aren't letting on publicly. I guess we can all just cross our fingers that it's part of some grand strategy to set things Straight, but I don't know... I just don't fucking know...

Their track record doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Layin’ Down The Law

Oh, I’m sorry… You thought this monster was done? Fat fucking chance. First, read Stephen Brunt’s nails take on the madness of the last couple weeks at the Globe and Mail, and then strap yourselves in for last Thursday’s KLaw Chat at ESPN (yeah, I’m late, what of it?), which was mostly a Halladay-trade-hysteria chat, with a healthy dose of Keith’s get-your-fucking-head-in-reality insight.

Keith Law: Please submit all the questions in the form "If my team offers these five crappy prospects for Roy Halladay, who says no?" It'll make it easier for me to delete you from the queue. Thanks.

Gerry (Scranton, PA): Klaw, if Doc is to go the Phils who would the Jays demand? Would Drabek, Donald, Marson be enough?
Keith Law: Here we go! No, that's not enough. Not close for me.

Shawn (Philly): It's been reported that the Phillies consider Kyle Drabek untouchable. If that's the case, is there any combination of prospects not including him that could entice the Jays to trade Halladay to the Phils?
Keith Law: Sticking with a theme - how stupid is that? Drabek isn't even good enough to be "untouchable" (great stuff, already blew out his elbow, fair delivery at best, makeup questions dating back to HS), but more to the point, you're talking about acquiring one of the top 5 starters in baseball - maybe the top starter in baseball - for a year and a half. You don't designate a AA pitcher as "untouchable" if you're serious about acquiring Doc.

Pete (Columbia, MO): Halladay for Gamel, Escobar, Braddock, and Parra...who says no?
Keith Law: The Jays.

Jason (St Louis): Wallace, Daryl Jones, Motte and two others for Halladay, is that decent or still not close? We'll even throw in Wellemeyer and pay his salary to get him off the roster.
Keith Law: Nope, not there either. Especially if the Jays want pitching.

Otis (Mt Airy, NC): I've watched the Jays all week. Seems to me their bigger issues lie in the contracts of Wells and Rios. Can they really expect to contend with two outfielders who have OBPs lower than a good Batting average?
Keith Law: Had breakfast with Joe Sheehan today and we had just this conversation. I argued that their best move is to trade Rios, who still has some value, clearing money to re-sign Halladay. Joe argued that trading Halladay can be a Teixeira moment, where they restock the system and build the 95-win team that's required in that division. It's a valid counterargument. Wells is just an albatross, though - he's going to have to move out of center and isn't worth close to his '11-13 salaries.

Chet (LA): Keith, I'm a big fan of your articles and opinions. In this chat, you're essentially saying that fans are ridiculous with trade rumors, and I agree with that. But, is there a reasonable trade you could suggest for a team wanting Doc? I was discussing with a friend a Buchholz, Bowden [question ends due to shitty new ESPN software]
Keith Law: I don't see why the Jays would trade Halladay unless they're getting at least one player who can step into the majors right now and who has 4-6 years of control left. Some readers have mentioned Kershaw; I highly doubt the Dodgers would discuss him, but that's the type of guy I think the Jays would require.

Dave (Toronto): When will JP get fired? He needs to go.
Keith Law: He's put together competitive clubs and recent trades have worked out pretty well. I think the biggest knock against him is all the money they've wasted in his tenure - Ryan, Koskie, arguably Burnett, even smaller deals like guaranteeing Koch's deal for a year. (They offered him $900K guaranteed or $1MM non-guaranteed. Tough call.) [Hey, speaking of Billy Krotch – Ed.]

Walt (Cincinnati): Cueto, Alonso, Stubbs 2 for Halladay. Let's get it done.
Keith Law: At least there, you're including a quality major-leaguer making the minimum, plus a guy in Stubbs who is major-league ready. It's the right idea.

Howie (oh): Keith, is the opinion around baseball that Halladay is that much better than Santana was when he was traded despite the fact that he's older than Santana was when he was dealt for a garbage package? If so, can we expect a similar type of deal??
Keith Law: The extra two and a half months of control are also a factor. You get Doc for this year's run, plus next year.

Jeremy (NJ): If a team is that close to winning the WS, I think they should "sell" the farm in order to get one of the best pitchers in baseball. How often do prospects pan out anyway? 5% of them? maybe that? With Halladay you know what you're getting, and you're getting him for 2010 also. Sell the farm if you want Roy!
Keith Law: I agree with this. He's a difference-maker, you get him for two pennant runs, he's very durable. There's no question you'd want that guy out there in games 1 and 5 (1, 4, and 7?) in a playoff series.

Jim (Acton, MA): Do you believe that a player is a different "performer" in the playoffs? If so, does Doc's lack of post-season experience create any concern at all?
Keith Law: Except in rare cases, no, I don't think it matters.

Jordan (Vancouver): Gotta love the Jays paying 15mil to make sure Ryan never craps the bed for them again. Does Marc Rzepczynski have a future in the rotation or is he just filler?
Keith Law: I think he's a reliever - low slot, bad arm action, significant platoon split in the minors.

ajd (chicago): Keith, noticed your recent tweet about Fear of a Black Hat. Great call -- I love that movie. Questions: 1) what happened to Vernon Wells? His decline surprised me. 2) Ever read Ellison's Invisible Man? I'm getting through it and like it much more than I anticipated.
Keith Law: And incredibly quotable. "When you take that bus, you get there." Wells really had just two great years before he got the big extension, and he'll chase stuff soft away forever. Liked Invisible Man, but it's not as good as Beloved or The Color Purple.

Russell (Knoxville): Rosenthal said Rios is on the block and you mentioned it would be the best starting place for Toronto. Would he be worth a top prospect like Rohrbough to the Braves, considering his cost?
Keith Law: They can't take that contract.

Mark (Enfield, CT): Keith...love the chats. Fernando Martinez, Wilmer Flores, and Jon Niese for Halladay? Also, given the Mets OF inneffectiveness, would it make sense to take on Wells or Rios' contract as well (and perhaps reduce the quality of the prospects required to sent to TOR)? Thanks!
Keith Law: No on the trade offer. I think Rios is actually a great fit for the Mets if they can take the contract.

James (milwaukee): When your talking about players like Cueto or Kershaw being involve in a deal plus top prospects is it really worth it for Halladay?
Keith Law: And this is what makes it so hard to find a viable trade proposal.

Briks (Philly): Sorry to keep doing the "who would blink first game", but does Dominic Brown, Carrasco, Donald, Drabek make any sense for Halladay?
Keith Law: That's their best bolt, but I think concerns about both arms holds down its value. (Do the Phils just not trust Carrasco? Didn't impress with his antics last July, at least.)

Silv (NY, NY): Great stuff this AM on Mike and Mike - I dig the real scouting perspective you bring to the show. What's more important to the Jays going forward - landing a brobdingnagian collection of talent for Doc or handcuffing Vernon to a prospective deal, in exchange for receiving less talent back?
Keith Law: Take the most talent you can get for Doc. I'd want two players in or close to the big leagues, then some fliers on guys lower down in the minors. A package of four players, none of whom could play in the majors this year (realistically), wouldn't be enough for me.

Nick (Chesterbrook, PA): Agreed on the podcast. You and Bill kept it rolling nicely. That was one of the best podcasts I've listened to in a while.Not to saddle you with starting a rumor, but which teams do you think could/should make a big push for Halladay? Since he can void any deal, Halladay will likely not accept anything that doesn't result in a meaty extension, right?
Keith Law: If he goes somewhere where he'll get big run support and can make a push at a Cy, it's in his interest to accept the trade without an extension. By the same token, accepting a deal to a hitters' park like Texas, Colorado, or the White Sox might not be in his interest.

nick (chicago): Keith, ive heard 1 million times the Phillies are in the best shape to get Doc, and The Red Sox and Yanks are potential suitors. CAn you give me some sleepers who could possibly make the move to get him?
Keith Law: I love the whole "the Phillies are the front-runners!" meme. This isn't a race. Texas certainly has young talent in spades. The Giants have always liked Halladay - they could have had him in early '03 - and they have the players, although I wouldn't call the rotation an area of need for them. (Again, Rios would be a fit - they want someone who can actually play center out there, and Rios was a good CF in the minors). Someone mentioned the Reds ... what if they decided to offer Bruce and Cueto as a starting point? Just to be clear, these are not rumors, this is my own speculation. I don't want MLBTraderumors running a "Keith Law's Halladay Rumors" post later today.

Chris (Texas): Would a Davis, Max Ramirez, Casey Kiker and MARTIN PEREZ, from Texas get it done for Doc? 2 big league ready players under their control for a while and 2 leftys with upside, especially perez. Plus it leaves the Rangers farm system in tacked?
Keith Law: I'm not sure I'd call Chris Davis "big league ready" after that first half he just threw up.

Jay (Irvine, CA): Why is it vital for the Jays to get major league ready players? They're not contending in the next couple years; wouldn't a package of stud prospects earlier in the system be a better fit?
Keith Law: For one thing, players who are closer to the majors are less risky, and you don't want to end up with a weak return like the Twins got for Santana. Also, I'm not as down on the talent on that roster. Hill, Lind, Snider, Romero, Cecil, a returning Marcum, Rios if he's not dealt ... pretty good start.