Monday, November 16, 2009

Monday Grab Bag

grabbag

Ugh. We’re really dealing with scraps here today, and frankly I don’t plan on getting really get worked up about any of this stuff. But for lack of anything better to post, here you go:

Brandon Phillips?

“If the Reds are serious about trading Brandon Phillips as has been speculated, the Toronto Blue Jays will be all over him. Blue Jays scouts think he has the arm to play third base – Phillips won a Gold Glove at second in 2008, but Aaron Hill’s not likely to be moved – and Phillips is well-known to both general manager Alex Anthopoulos and adviser Tony LaCava,” writes Jeff Blair for the Globe and Mail. “LaCava was with the Montreal Expos in 1999 when Phillips was chosen second overall, and as an adviser with the Cleveland Indians, he pushed for him to be included in the Bartolo Colon deal. Phillips has two years and $19-million (U.S.) left on his contract.”

The question that immediately comes to my mind here is, if LaCava and Anthopoulos know Phillips so well, don’t they know he sucks?

OK, OK, that’s harsh. Fangraphs actually suggests that he’s been a bargain the last couple of years, but that’s mostly based on his defence at second. Maybe that will translate to third—hmmm perhaps I should ask our comments section’s resident pretend footwork expert, JB—but… even if it did, so what? Paying that much money for two years of Brandon Phillips? Why? For fuck sakes, let’s tank this thing proper.

Of course, since this is just Blair’s own speculation, we needn’t be so scared. That is… unless you read about it on TSN, who’ve turned Blair’s musings into the much more concrete-sounding and semicolon-y “Report: Reds shopping Phillips; Jays have interest”.

A Look Back At The Wells Extension…

Great stuff from our pal Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors, who did some digging and found a few reactions to the Vernon Wells extension from way back in December 2006.

Of it, actual genius Nate Silver seriously fucking said: “Toronto did a good job of assessing Wells's value in the short term. As for the risks associated with a contract that stretches past the player's 35th birthday? Consider it a necessary evil for securing a premium player who likely would've fetched at least $150 million in next year's market.”

Peter Gammons—legend, this guy. Legend—wrote that “if you're going to give $18 million to somebody, you want them to be as diligent and as reliable as Vernon. If he went out in the market next year, with Andruw Jones, and Ichiro, and Torii Hunter, I really believe that at his age he might be #1.”

Amazing!

Dierkes also posted his own brief analysis, which is made a hundred million thousand times better by a quick stroll through the comments section. I fucking luff how incredibly fucking wrong the asshole who gets incredibly fucking assholish is. And yes, the irony of that is not lost on me.

Somewhat Quickly

MLB Daily Dish suggests the Jays take a look at Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit and his “big bat” to fill their void behind the plate. And when they say “big bat” they must mean that he literally uses a larger piece of lumber than most, because after taking a look at his numbers I just threw up in my mouth.

Insane, nostalgic Jays fans who refuse to hear anything bad about Joe Carter, even though he really, literally does have to his credit a few of the worst ever seasons for a full-time cleanup hitter and 100 RBI producer—like the .234/.284/.399/.683 turd he laid in 1997, thank you very much, Cito—will be pleased to know that Fangraphs has an award they call the Carter-Batista award (yes, that’s Tony Batista), for players whose offensive value is most overrated because of their RBI totals. This year it went to Ryan Ludwick.

Sticking with the Fangraphs love-in, I can’t remember if we ever linked to Marc Hulet’s review of Jays prospects over the 2009 season, where he reminds us of bright spots, like Carlos Pina and Tim Collins, before crushing us with a look at what Kevin Ahrens has—or hasn’t—been up to.

Once the front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year—which was just won by Oakland’s Josh Andrew Bailey—Ricky Romero faded badly down the stretch and ended up receiving no votes for the award. But he still learned a lot this year, or something uplifting like that. Meh. Jordan Bastian takes a look at how his season turned out.

Speaking of RR Cool Jay, Romero answers some questions from Baseball Prospectus.

Fake Teams talks to Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect, who is apparently a guy who knows things about stuff, and he mentioned Scott Rolen-bait Zach Stewart as one of his top prospects who aren’t household names, and as one of the prospects most likely to make an impact in 2010. “He'll be the Blue Jay's No. 1 prospect, so he won't be underrated but he's also not a household name. Potential No. 3 starter or top flight set-up man...two plus pitches, ability to miss bats and get ground balls,” he said, adding that he “should have an immediate impact if he starts out in the bullpen.”

59 rational and reasonable comments:

Anonymous said...

Lindsay Lohan is a firecrotch

Anonymous said...

Some links are mixed up. Please revise.

Stoeten said...

I am not your monkey! But... OK.

Tony Viner said...

Mike McCoy will start at SS. I found him for Alex. Beeston works FOR ME. I am the boss. I built this team, and I will see it through.

Randy Ruiz is a personal project. He will hit 30+ HR this season, although he isn't quite as handsome as me.

Dopirak was Tony's find, but I OK'd his addition to the 40-man, because I believe in him. He will hit 30+ too.

Tony Viner is very smart. You better ask somebody.

Stoeten said...

Bo-ring.

Anonymous said...

Bring Brandon To Toronto!

Boggs Head said...

MAN, I gotta take a HUGE crapola!

Phil Lind said...

Don't give all of our secrets away, Tony. We still have a few tricks up our sleeves. Don't be like JP, you know how much Nadir hated him.

Mr. Belding said...

Hey, hey, hey. *What* is going *on* here?

Jeff said...

Encarnacion to Phillips.

Without comparing stats that sure looks awfully lateral. Phillips seems to have had good second base defense (positive UZRs, some over 10) so to his credit he is predispositioned to be better than Encarnacion defensively, but there's no guarantees.

If you can actually get Phillips to learn third base well and maybe even be good at it, I'm down as long as don't pay him most of what he's owed.

Branden said...

"If you can actually get Phillips to learn third base well and maybe even be good at it, I'm down as long as don't pay him most of what he's owed."

On account of the fact that the Reds are shopping Phillips to dump salary, doesn't it seem unlikely that they would take "most of what he's owed"? Just sayin'...

tercet said...

lol awesome link for the carter-batista award stoten, good find.

Nadir Mohamed said...

Okay, I did *not* hate JP. It's just that I'm good with money and he isn't.

Jessie Spano said...

I'm so excited, I'm so excited, I'm so, I'm so... scared!

Joe Carter said...

Fuck you peckerwood!

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bflYjF90t7c

Leocadio Batista said...

Canto de cabrĂ³n! Me cago en tu madre! Cabron sucio Maricon Mamabicho!

Dewey said...

Isn't it Andrew Bailey?

Will said...

Those commenting as in favor of or at least not opposed to the Wells deal at the time were not wrong (even though one of them was being a major ass about it)

Looking back in hindsight, enjoying the benefit of knowing about three major factors that no one at the time could reasonably have been expected to fore see, doesn't make us smarter than them.

The market collapse was unprecedented in every way. the inflation in baseball salaries for the previous decade would have easily covered for Wells signing a deal of that size - IF he had maintained a reasonably expected level of production.

Combine that with Wells suddenly becoming injury prone, seeing his defensive ability go over the cliff instead of slowly decline, and a 2009 that - no matter how much you might have doubted him you didn't see coming and no one would have predicted...and you have a very bad contract.

But it wasn't a bad signing at the time (unless you disagree on principle with contracts that long, or commitments that large - even when they work out which is not the argument MOST Wells/JP bashers make against that contract) - it was simply a case of buying at the peak of the bubble.

It's not unlike how the RC was built at the height of the "modernistic" fetish and then *bam* all of a sudden retro is the new trend and we have a white elephant on our hands.

Looked like a reasonable move at the time but circumstance undermined the choice.

also, regarding the backoading - if Beeston says we could spend $120 million now if there was a reason to, then is it not reasonable to expect that in 2006 Rogers had every reason to think that (in THAT baseball economy) by 2011 they'd be spending that much or more on payroll with or without Wells.

Even with a reasonable decline in ability, paying a (for instance) competent CF with an OPS in the low .800s $21 million out of a (for instance) $130 million payroll isn't nearly as crippling as paying $21 million out of an $80 million payroll.


but anyway, this post is already to long - bottom line, anyone can look like a genius in hindsight.

Arnold said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oA0IpS_3S-0&feature=related

dk said...

It's Andrew Bailey, not Josh.

Unless I just missed an obvious joke. In which case, yukk it up.

Jays Balk said...

If he's got the arm to play third, as Jays' scouts seem to think, can he potentially play short? His arm is probably better than Scutaro's.

http://jaysbalk.wordpress.com/2009/11/16/brandon-phillips/

Anonymous said...

Haha, Jays Balk. No one will ever go to your website. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Stoeten said...

Jays Balk, still with pimping your own blog? Kinda tacky.

Fixed the Bailey thing-- don't know what the hell that was about. Didn't need it a second time, dk.

Anonymous said...

No one could have known Vernon would be abducted by aliens and replaced with THIS !! Too bad he wasn't a king . Time to rebuild the castle.

The Jays need to get behind this guy. They need to get him ready to rebound. What do they have to lose ? He is a liability right now. If he can come out of this he will be attractive and we can get out on terms that Jays fans will read about for years. He is owed so much that I want to puke. Really fucking puke.

Come on Vernon. Fuck. If you were fucking average you would be loved. Get a fucking shrink !!!

If Wells is there we are close. If not.......

JB said...

Brandon Phillips can keep his .312 OBP in Cincy. That is the last type of player we need.

No idea if he can play third or not, but I would love to see the move of Aaron Hill to third. Thanks for asking though.

Anonymous said...

what exactly is the point of spending 9.5m/y on phillips when you could get chone figgins for probably 3m more a year

bkblades said...

what exactly is the point of spending 9.5m/y on phillips when you could get chone figgins for probably 3m more a year

You just answered your own question, anonymous. Phillips will be cheaper than Figgins, not to mention younger.

Anonymous said...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hinske-hits-the-market-again

HINSKE, HINSKE!

Peter D said...

Just when you think AJ Burnett can't screw the Jays anymore, I discover that Rookie of the Year Chris Coughlan was drafted with a pick received as a result of the Blue Jays signing AJ Burnett.

Just wonderful!

Anonymous said...

On the Wells analysis. It's one of the points that I've always disliked about the whole anti JP/Wells faction of Jays fandom. The comparisons between Wells and Delgado by them were unfair from a number of perspectives, but mainly in terms of how much of the total team payroll each player took up. When Delgado was making $18 million on a $50 - $60 million dollar team, that's nearly half of the entire team payroll. I don't care how great Delgado is/was that is way to much to pay one player. When Wells signed it was reasonable to expect that the Jays payroll would be at or above $100 million when the $20 million years of his contract came up. That's 20% of the team payroll, still a hell of a lot for thhe production that Wells has provided since signing. As has been said though, no body expected this kind of decline out of VW.

Hindsight is 20/20 but if you look at the contracts that were being given out to the elite CF'ers at the time (and many believed that Wells was an elite CF'er) then you have to think that if he didn't get it in Toronto that he would have got it somewhere else.

JB said...

That deal was never good with Wells.

He had a peak value that winter with one more year on his contract. He was always overated even when he was good. His OBP has always been mediocre and his SLG was over .500 just twice. His best seasons were in his 24 and 27 seasons and they were really good, but not "elite". You knew his defense would take a licking over the course of the contract as well.

I always wonder what we could have got from Texas for Wells. Edison Volquez? Ian Kinsler? Of course if we got Volquez, we could have flipped him for Josh Hamilton like ending up doing since they lost Wells.

Peter D said...

At the time the offers for Wells were a bit underwhelming, however they had to take the best offer they could get, rather than losing him for draft picks or overpaying him to stay.

The best offer was from Anahiem who was willing to part with a package including Ervin Santana for Wells.

Anonymous said...

I don't think Texas was offering up any of those guys. If memory serves me correctly there was talk of a Wilkerson-Wells. yeah I know its somewhat ironic.

JB said...

Well we don't really know do we. I find that the trade rumours we hear about rarely happen while ones we never expect do. At least with the Blue Jays.

Ervin Santana would have been a nice. Wilkerson? Well at least that would have been cheaper. But if you look at what they gave up for Hamilton (Volquez) you would think they would be offering much more than that.

Peter D said...

Wasn't Brandon McCarthy also involved in the Wilkerson rumour?

Anonymous said...

JB Don't get insulted, but is your job devoted to spreading ignorance?

SP said...

9:25, good post.

JB, how did you know Wells' fielding would decline like this?

Vernon Wells said...

I SMOKE CRACK

Anonymous said...

I would sign Eric Hinske to platoon with Jose Bautista in RF. Why not? Cheap .800+ OPS.

We need a catcher. How about Kyle Phillips/ Raul Chavez? Not too bad. I could see Phillips hitting .250/.350/.400/.750

Mike McCoy looks great as a bench guy at least, amybe leadoff man/SS?

SP said...

If we sign Hinske, that means we're going to the World Series, right?

Peter D said...

LOL! You've got Mike McCoy, Kyle Phillips and Eric Hinske in your line-up. If that doesn't strike fear into opponents, or at the very least suggest a team playing their core future players, then my name isn't Joey Joe Joe Shabadoe.

JB said...

@SP:

Centre fielders tend to erode in range after 27, especially after 30. Wells never had the pure blazing speed that would suggest he could overcome those odds.

Vernon's range factor was actually in decline since 2004 (when he was 25). By the time he was 27 he was getting the gold glove based on his 2004 reputation. Although we can now see how his fielding has deteriated, his 2009 season's fielding stats are arguably better than his 2007 season (age 27). Last year he had a better fielding percentage (yes, I know that stat is garbage), one more assist (probably because people are running on him more), but he had a higher range factor, range factor per nine innings, and LEAGUE range factor.

Of course, there are major problems with all fielding metrics but all these show a DECLINE. Throw in age, speed, body, etc and it I thought it was pretty self-evident.

But what do I know? According to Andrew Stoeten, Adam Lind will be a great first basemen because you can't judge a fielder's potential based on emperical observation.

James said...

I remember at the time that the Wells signing seemed to be kind of a statement by Rogers. There was a lot of talk about the Jays not being able to keep their stars at this time (Delgado left just a couple years before).

Actually, the situation now almost parallels that in some ways. There was lots of specuation about fans losing interest in the Jays this year, and Rogers has responded with hints that they'd be willing to hit the Angels/Red Sox threshold of payroll.

I guess the difference is, AA seems to have decided to hold off on that offer.

Stedron said...

Doumit broke his wrist early in the year if I recall. Probably impacted his numbers.

Brandon Phillips is one of the few reasons to watch the Reds. I'd take him.

Anonymous said...

Not offering arbitration to Delgado was an enormous misstep. Don't care if he would have accepted and "forced" the Jays to have him on the team. It was one year at a time. Let him accept indefinitely, but get those two picks. It was retarded then and it was retarded now.

Hey, maybe we shouldn't offer it to Roy at the end of the year, by the same logic.

Especially since the cheap shits at Rogers can swallow the SINGLE YEAR contract Delgado would have been playing on, motherfuckers.

ANyway, all the Wells discussion assumes that the team would put that money back ... into the team, and they've proven they won't. When AJ left that money wasn't spent on the 09 team. When Rios was sent to Chicago, that money was not re-invested. Nadir, Viner and company would put a $25 million team out there if they could figure out how

JB said...

Brandon Phillips sucks! We are going to go out and get a guy like Brandon Phillips (.265/.312/.430) and dump a guy like Overbay (.279/.363/.479)?

I hope this is just Blair sitting around and speculating about the old Expos days. I really hope that AA doesn't have the nostalgia for those old Expos products. The Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips trade tells me those guys didn't have a clue what they were doing.

Tony Viner said...

We will have a $25 million team payroll in 2015, when Vernon is off the books and we are broke. That is my plan. We will have a payroll of no more than $70 million in 2010, and we will have a winning record with emerging stars like Ruiz, McCoy and Dopirak making peanuts.

I am smart. I have a plan. A handsome plan, if you will.

Anonymous said...

Brandon Phillips>Lyle Overbay...Any Day!

Anonymous said...

Halladay finished 5th in Cy Young voting behind

1. Greinke
2. Felix
3. Verlander
4. CC

SRK said...

Overbay>Phillips

They don't play the same position, but clearly Overbay has a better bat than Phillips.

SP said...

Other than Halladay having a way better season than CC, they got it right.

Strumbo in London said...

Tell that to Yankee fans who think CC got robbed.

I agree Phillips sucks.

Anonymous said...

Yeah SP that's right, CC won a World Series but that doesn't matter because in your little metric world, season stats are all that matters.

CC has always been a pitcher that turns it up in Sept and Oct and I'd rather have a guy like that anyday.

The Halladay crying on this site is laughable. Yeah he's a great pitcher. Yeah he's one of the top 5 pitchers in the league. But during the course of the year, when he had the odd bad outing, guys would come on here and say oh he got lit up for 6 runs tonight but his peripherals are still good. Even Halladay would admit after games like that that he didn't have his best stuff that night but no, it was politically incorrect to dare to criticize Halladay on DJF.

For as good as he's been in the time he's been here, the Jays are still without a playoff appearance or any real meaningful Sept games and really, that's all the casual fan cares about. It's not going to be hardcore sabermetric fans that fill the seats at RC, like it or not.

Dead Horses said...

Quit beating me.

Sincerely.

Anonymous said...

"Yeah SP that's right, CC won a World Series but that doesn't matter because in your little metric world, season stats are all that matters."

Actually the voting is done before the postseason so ya season stats ARE all that matter.

Anonymous said...

Brandon Phillips is WAYYYYYYYY Better for our team this year than overpayed will be! I would take him in a flash!

Anonymous said...

Anon 4:02 - you're a dumb faggot. "The Halladay crying on this site is laughable." What's hilarious is the shitty attempt at trolling you and yourr dumbfuck cousins have tried to engage in when Halladay has a rare bad game.

I wish I could find the list one of you interchangeable retards had of pitchers that were better than Roy. It was probably the best comment the site's ever had.

Anyway, I know you're coming back here to see if anyone called you on your nonsense. Consider it done. You don't know anything about baseball, and everyone is laughing at you.

Anonymous said...

"Tell that to Yankee fans who think CC got robbed."

Even taking into consideration that joke of a stadium Sabathia pitches in, he still finished well behind Doc in Adjusted ERA.

Yankee fans are even bigger homers than the Doc ballwashers around here - and that's saying something.

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