The System
When Alex Anthopoulos first came on the scene as general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, he promised to do things "the right way." Somehow through the myriad of vagaries and generalizations in his talking points, we could at least gather that "the right way" meant building a club that can consistently compete in its division through smart trades and a healthy Minor League system.
So far, that's translated into a Brad Fullmer biceps sized commitment to scouting on all levels. Let's hope the next move is to use that scouting to build a system in which Yohermyn Chavez isn't being named your top prospect by The Hardball Times.
Now, THT's Prospector Matt Hagen (pictured) and his list are mainly full of shit, but the fact that it's so full of shit gives evidence to the disturbing lack of obvious talent expected to come our way in the next few years.
1. Yohermyn Chavez: Um, yeah. He had a great season last year in Lansing, and it's good to see improvement considering his first year at the A level was such a shit show, but our number one prospect is repeating years? I know he's only 20 years old, but it's ridiculous to give top prospect honours to someone just mastering low A ball.
2. Chad Jenkins: The first pick the Blue Jays made at the 2009 draft. He's apparently already shot up our prospect charts to this point? Did Hagen even see any of these players play? Or is he trying to pawn off the best hitting numbers in the system and the team's top draft choice as the best the system has to offer based on numbers and reputation alone?
3. J.P. Arencibia: I'd rather not write about last year's disappointment. It's right on par with four year old Dustin learning there wasn't a Santa Claus from Matt Doris' older brother.
4. Tyler Pastornicky: It's adorable that midgets are being given equal opportunities and all, but I think the fantasy has gone on long enough.
5. Zach Stewart: Reliever, no? Okay, that's harsh. Stewart has promise. And part of that promise comes from the fact that he's the product of the potentially thorough raping that the Jays gave the Reds in the Scott Rolen deal. If only lightning could strike twice.
6. David Cooper: See J.P. Arencibia.
7. Henderson Alvarez: Okay, now we're talking. Alvarez is exciting. In his first year of A ball, at the age of 19, he was the staff ace. This coming season is huge for the right hander.
8. Moises Sierra: Sierra had a great year playing high A ball, and he even extended that level of play into a brief callup to Double A. He's another guy about to have an important year.
9. Brad Emaus: After posting some good numbers in his first year of pro ball, Emaus remembered that he wasn't a great prospect and decided to go back to playing at that level. Thanks for at least being honest this time, Brad.
10. Brad Mills: I kind of wish this guy was better than he was, but with so many lefty starters at this level, Mills is going to have to prove himself at Triple A in 2010 before getting the callup.
No Tim Collins or Carlos Perez? Shame!
For prospect listings that make a lot more sense, check out the work that Batter's Box has put together for their end of year Top 30 list.



24 rational and reasonable comments:
Parkes---What did you expect the jays farm system to be? It's well known that JP fired the scouts, when we bought into that maneyball thing.Are you blaming AA because the farm system is so poor?We didn't sign 3 out of the top 5 picks from the draft.You cut up THT then quote them to prove your point. WTF.
maneyball = moneyball
sry
What r u reading? Where does he blame AA for anything?
Hey Radar, here's a link you might find useful:
http://www.learnatest.com/shop/KitDetail.cfm?coreID=1111111063&type=V&seqNum=2&MBC=MIL
I'm saying the system is shitty (not pointing blame at anyone), almost as shitty as the ridiculous listing THT threw together (pointing blame at THT). I then go on to recommend Batter's Box for a more accurate prospect listing.
I know I used some big words in there, but if your dictionary isn't handy, you can check online, All-Star.
@ anon 11:23
You're right he didn't blame AA. My bad. I stand corrected.
I truly am sorry DP. I made a mistake. please forgive me. You've had a moment of clarity lately and I'm not used to it.I got stop commenting when I'm hung over.
Hopefully, that apology is good enough for you.
I guess. Friends again?
Whoa, last time you said that, you got me drunk
and I woke up in a Nevada brothel with a day- glo condom, two girls named Trixie and Moesha and some sorta goop in my hair after getting a sleave job.
Look at how JP regarded Adam Dunn and you can tell he was never playing moneyball.
Batter's Box has a great roundup that I agree with.
Can someone tell JP Arencibia to take a damn pitch and a walk once and awhile? He would be in the big leagues this year if he did!
Arencibia won't be much more then a rod barajas in the majors due to his 1-10 walk to strikeout ratio in the minors.
While we have plenty of pitching prospects we do have pretty much nothing in terms of hitting.
Hopefully the Jays will be able to net at least one or two good position prospects when they trade Halladay... the system is definitely very pitcher-heavy right now.
Lets not totally write of JP Arencibia, it wasn't too long ago everybody had written off Rickey Romero and Dustin McGowan before that.
Not every player blasts through the minors and becomes an instant stud, some struggle before they figure things out.
Although I concede JP's bb/k ratios are horrible, he's also learning the most difficult position in baseball at the same time. He's not a bust until the Jays are forced to make a decision on him or cut him loose.
If Aaron Cibia becomes a young, cheap, Rod Barajas with a lot of years of control, that's beyond fine.
I think Arencibia will be comparable to Rod Barajas when he finally develops in the majors, which is not saying much.
Jenkins I see as having a ceiling comparable to Joe Blanton, but my expectations are that he will be another Zach Jackson.
Zach Stewart should develop into a fine reliever.
For everyone else, it is either too soon to tell whether they will have any major league success, or they will end up as minor league filler guys.
IF the Jays did trade Halladay to the Yankees, getting a package that included Jesus Montero would make me feel much better about the Jays catching situation going forward.
Brad Mills didn't have to prove anything to get the call up this year his numbers were junk 1-8 in AAA, the Jays were desperate for any kind of pitching so they had to call the farm system to bail them out.
Halladay for Jackson and Montero + throw in a b level arm like Kennedy and it would set the team up nicely
Hill, Lind, Snider + that haul gives a solid core...especially up the middle
I could deal with the 2-3 years required to incubate into contender of that was the core
I think Jackson is another Rios, I'd prefer Phil Hughes as I still think he will develop into a Stud. And for those that say Hughes is bust, take a look at Roy Halladays numbers in his second full season in Toronto. Buy LOW!!!
The question now for AA is, should he deal Aaron Hill for a boat load of talent? Are his 2009 numbers realistic or would he be selling high.
If I'm offered a package of say Brett Lawrie, Matt Gamel and Angel Salome. I'd have to think about it.
Stealing Batter's Box pictures one week and praising them the next after shitting on them from day one, who's the fucking guy impersonating Parkes here?
I'd take the sure thing.
Anchor second basemen are such a rare commodity. Utley,maybe Cano and then who?
He may get close to 30/100 but he has character/grit to be the leader of this team once the house keeping is done. I see him being Jeter north for the next 10 years steady .290/ 20/85.
I'll take that from the 2-slot in the batting order and build around that any day of the week
where carlos perez? he has to be in the top 5. (only blue jays prospect to make a minor league top 20 @ BA)
personally i wouldn't have cooper, emaus or mills in my top 10... pastronicky and aaron cibia would be towards the back end - if they appeared at all.
how bout this Danny Farquhar.
he can throw side-arm, 3/4 and over the top up to the mid 90s. his walk rate is shit, yes, but i would expect that when you change the arm angle, plus he induces the GB. hope he doesn't blow his arm out doin that craziness.
GM AA has to hire more scouts just because he will have so many extra picks for this year's draft. I wonder if he will cut some lose come next July. They could also send more into Latin America after the draft or during down times as a possibility.
-brent in Korea
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